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Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums The Gridiron The College Game Who should be the first QB taken in the draft?


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Who should be the first QB taken in the draft?

  • Offline Achilles
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04-03-2018, 12:25 PM

(04-03-2018, 12:14 PM)knarnn Wrote: Not sure if there are any stat and analytic junkies out there but I found this article very interesting as it relates to the top QB prospects in this years draft.

Quote: The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That's the point of Football Outsiders' Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience, and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss. To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3 to 5 of his career according to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metric. 50,000 simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.

However, there is one top prospect who QBASE clearly likes ahead of all the others, and one top prospect whose statistical profile is a gigantic red flag. We explain both projections below, along with the QBASE projections for six other top quarterbacks based on Scouts Inc. rankings for the 2018 draft....

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a...qbase-2018


Interesting system, but I think if you just watch these guys play, Rosen is the hands down best QB right now. He looks like a sure-fire franchise QB. 

If he isn't the 1st QB taken, whoever gets him should probably consider getting a steal.
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RE: Who should be the first QB taken in the draft? - by Achilles - 04-03-2018, 12:25 PM



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