(04-10-2018, 06:55 PM)pirkster Wrote: You really, really aren't getting this.  You simply can't admit you're a mile off base here.

Change the rounds, and absolutely nothing changes.

Just to satisfy your fantasy, we'll pretend the Jaguars have a "franchise" grade on Jackson and Rudolph.  All other QBs were spoken for and expected to be well out of reach.  (Bear with me, I've had to really stretch beyond the necessary and realistic to follow you.)

They think both Jackson/Rudolph are gone to the Saints unless they go get him.  You're going to have to get ahead of the Saints to get your franchise guy.  Not a reach.  Have to move up unless you're satisfied with passing on your "franchise" qb in favor of upcoming drafts.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 3 grade on him.  If the Jags take him with their first rounder, they're still getting the value they expected.  It's only a few slots difference.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 31 grade on him.  Jags take BAP with the first rounder and also select Rudolph in the 2nd.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 31 grade on him.  Jags are afraid the Colts will take him at round 2 pick 17.  Jaguars take BAP with the first rounder and move back up early in the second ahead of the Colts to take Rudolph.

This is simply how it works in practice.

(emphasis added)

Now I'm going to argue the other side.

As to the portion in bold, that's how it works in theory.  I submit it rarely works out this way in practice...at least as it pertains to franchise QBs.

First problem involves Rudolph's grade.  My question is Rudolph's grade according to whom?  If you assume that every team has exactly the same grade on Rudolph, fine.  The fact is, even with a consensus, there will likely be at least one team, probably more, that has a higher grade/need at QB than you, who presumably has him a rnd 2 pick 31 grade.  That one team can be enough to ruin your draft hopes.

Second problem is even assuming you see the need to trade up to get your guy, it doesn't mean teams are willing to trade down to accommodate your desire for a QB.  Maybe the player they want is already on the board.  Maybe the team that has the higher grade on Rudolph offered more to trade up for him.  The fact is, trades are far easier to make on a message board.  If there is a guy you think is a legitimate franchise QB, and you don't have one, it is absolute hubris to pass on him thinking he will be around later.

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