(08-09-2018, 03:24 PM)jj82284 Wrote: What rate did I use?

You said "north of 3%"
Then you said "about half a trillion of extra GDP"
GDP in 2017 was $19.5 trillion in 2017 dollars.
3% growth on that would be $585 billion, significantly more than half a trillion, so your shorthand estimates don't match up well.
"north of" that would be more.

The effective gross rate in 2017 was 17%.

So you'd get between $85 - $100 billion in new tax revenue depending on which of your two spitball numbers we run with, but only if you use the old effective gross rate.

But the effective gross rate in 2018 is sure to be slightly lower, as taxes were cut.  We don't really know what that new effective number will be, but CBO took a stab at it, and thought that it was around 16.2%.  The missing money for that part of the calculation works out to somewhere around $150 billion.

In other words, growth will have to be at least 4% and probably 5% for the growth effect to outpace the rate cut effect.

And we still haven't accounted for inflation.

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