(11-02-2018, 11:37 AM)Jags02 Wrote:

(11-01-2018, 08:03 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: They wouldn't have put the offsets in there if they didn't envision a scenario where they'd end up cutting him.  I do believe the small guaranteed portion of his deal next year ($6.5 million) is basically going to force him to re-do his deal here if he wants to stay and start/mentor a rookie to take over next year.  They're simply not going to pay him $21 million next year based on where we're at with him at this moment.  If he goes on a run and we crawl our way back into the playoffs, maybe things change for him.  If they are forced to cut him next year, however, they'd only owe him the $6.5 million and probably less due to the offsets.

The dead money means nothing to Blake.  That's a team number.  They could easily tell him they'd like to keep him if he'll re-sign on a 1 or 2 year deal for $13 mil per year or some other arbitrary low end bridge QB salary which lowers the team's cap hit, guarantees Blake a much bigger pay day than he's currently guaranteed to get and if it's a 2 year deal they could have most if not all of the guarantees in year 1 so there is little to no dead money issue the following year.  The current deal provides the team leverage in not moving forward with his current deal one way or another.  If you're Blake and you're facing getting cut and making $6.5 million for 2019 or the team says we want you to stay for somewhere in the $13 to $15 million range and we'll fully guarantee it prior to training camp, which would you choose?  No one is trading anything for him at a $21 million salary for 2019 unless part of the trade involves him reworking his deal.  And even then, why would anyone want to trade for him based on his career to date?  Everything else has to be right for him to be successful consistently.  There's a lot of back ups in the league that could probably provide that for a lot less money.

Him playing on his current contract next year seems like a highly unlikely scenario to me right now.  Even the most anti-Bortles Jags fans shouldn't have a problem having him here next year at a much lower number in a bridge/mentor/eventual back up role.

You're confusing numbers here. You said, "No one is trading anything for him at a $21 million salary for 2019 unless part of the trade involves him reworking his deal." The $21 mil is his cap hit, which includes a $5 mil signing bonus hit from his last signing bonus. His base salary is only $16 mil, which is all his new team would have to pay him short of re-working his deal.

Again, Blakes cap hit if he plays is $21 mil. If they cut him, his remaining $10 mil in bonus amortization counts along with the additional $6.5 mil guaranteed salary. It's possible that $6.5 mil number could go down with the offsets which would only be the case if his new team actually paid him less than that as a backup. I don't know that we can count on that happening, so chances are we'll owe the full $6.5 mil. When you including the $10 bonus amortization, that makes his dead money hit $16.5 mil. The total savings for 2019 would be $4.5 mil.

If the team was loaded with available cash this would be easy to do, however, we're over the cap and have to make moves just to get under. To free up a mere $4.5 mil with no starting QB in place on the roster puts the Jaguars in a very tough situation.

Now, if they hang onto Blake for one more year at $21 mil, and then cut him after 2019, the team would only have to account for his final $5 mil signing bonus hit. Compared to his contracted $23 mil cap hit for 2020, that would be an $18 mil savings leaving the Jaguars in much better shape to go out and sign a proven vet should Blake not redeem himself by then.

If we make the move this year instead, you can pretty much forget about any decent free agent QBs. The Jaguars would literally be forced to go QB with their first pick, and every team out there would know it. Some of those teams might look to move ahead of the Jaguars, so to get our QB we're talking about trading even more picks. It's just really not an ideal situation.

Mea culpa.  I did mistake his cap number for his salary and that changes things.  However, I can't imagine he's out of the league next year so if cut there would be some offset on the $6.5 million.  The offset wasn't put in there for [BLEEP] and giggles.  They would have had to have envisioned a scenario in which he's cut.  Whether they're at the beginning stages of that scenario remains to be seen.  He's worth at least a few million as a back up if he's forced to find a new deal next year, so to suggest the difference between cap hit and dead money is only going to be $4.5 million probably won't end up being accurate.  It will probably wind up being more like a $6.5 to $7.5 million difference if he's shopping for a back up role next year and I think that's being conservative.  I could see Houston valuing him in back up role or any other team that may have playoff aspirations in 2019 and a QB with an injury history.  Brian Hoyer is getting $3 million in NE.  Although Foles salary has jumped since his performance in the Super Bowl, he took home a little over $4 million last year on his prior deal.  Bridgewater is getting $6 million this year.  Schaub is averaging $4.5 million in Atlanta. Colt McCoy is averaging $3.25 million in Washington.  Henne is averaging $3.3 million in KC.  Glennon is getting an average of $4 million per year out in Arizona.  The point is, veteran guys normally don't play back up QB for peanuts.  Even where we are right now, I would probably take Bortles over most if not all of the above guys so I think he'll be just fine if he finds himself shopping for a back up QB job next year which means the offsets would come in to play in a significant way.

A trade would seem more possible looking at the proper salary figure, even though it's perhaps still improbable.  I just don't see anyone trading for a bridge starter when you can usually find one in free agency.  If a trade were to happen, it would probably be something like what Houston did with Osweiler where they gave a pick up to the Browns in exchange for the Browns getting Osweiler's contract off of Houston's books.  If the Raiders part ways with Carr this offseason, they might be a prime candidate for such a move considering how happy Gruden has been to acquire more picks combined with their projected cap space in 2019.

So it comes down to rolling with Blake at a $21 million hit, cutting him and still realizing an approximate $14 million hit (IMO), or trading him (and probably giving up a pick to do so) and taking little to no hit.  That trade to Raiders scenario sounds really good to me assuming the pick given up isn't too high.

Also, I still don't think reworking his deal is necessarily out of the question. He's still set to make $16 million with the Jags vs. $6.5 on the street or elsewhere. That's still $9.5 million worth of leverage the team has to persuade him to re-do it to something more team friendly.

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