(11-30-2018, 11:08 AM)Jay Carter 904 Wrote:

(11-30-2018, 10:56 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: Interesting take.  What do you think the purpose of putting the offset language in his guarantee portion of his deal next year was for then?

It's possible he's here.  It's possible he's starting. But based on his deal and everything we've seen from him to date, it's far more likely the team is planning to move on from him if they can.  The draft doesn't always go the way you want unless you have the number 1 overall pick which I don't think we'll end up with so it's possible they plan to move on from him but can't find an appropriate successor in the draft.  Also, I think signing a starting QB in free agency would require too much of a combined cap hit from the new QB's salary and Blake's dead money hit to be a viable solution here.  The successor, if he arrives next year, would almost certainly have to come in the draft and guys that are capable of starting right away tend to get drafted pretty high.

Based on our history, I feel strongly that they don't want to draft a guy to start immediately. Especially if he isn't NFL ready. The last two times that has happened, look how it has turned out. If they sign or trade for a vet like Stafford who everyone wants, they will cut Blake and draft a QB. If they don't, they probably will still draft a QB and Blake will start until the rookie is ready. I seriously believe they are trying to stay away from playing the rookie day 1.

That sounds like a fine plan until you take the salary cap into account.  Who else are we cutting to pay Stafford and eat Blake's dead money?  Stafford on his current deal would have a cap number of $19 million next year in a Jags uni and Blake's dead money number is going to be between $10 and $16.5 million.  At the very least, the combined amount would be $29 million and probably more realistically like $32 million.   That number is not unfathomable, but you're probably cutting guys elsewhere that you weren't planning on to meet that cap hit at QB.  

This doesn't even take into account the Lions cap situation which if they trade or release Stafford would require them to take a $49 million dollar cap hit next year.  He's pretty much going to be a Lion for the next 2 years at least as a result of his deal.

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