(12-29-2018, 11:01 AM)hb1148 Wrote:

(12-29-2018, 10:33 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: I don’t think so.

Jags had the luxury of playing against Savage, Brisett and Mariota 6 times.

Last years offense was a mirage. Take away the defensive TDS and they averaged like 17 a game or something like that. Also, if the defense allowed more than 20 last year, the Jags more than likely lost.

Last year was a perfect storm of schedule, injuries (or the lack of injuries for the Jags) and the best defense in football. The offense had the ball on so many extra possessions and yet couldn’t really do much with it.

Last year's offense would have made this year's team a contender for the division title without a doubt. Adjusting for defensive scores, last year's offense averaged about 23 points per game compared to this year's offense which is  only scoring about 15 ppg. That's a huge difference. 

This year, they're giving up 19.7 ppg which is currently 5th best in the league, showing the defense is still pretty good but not good enough to make up for the lousy offensive scoring. In 2017 they gave up 16.8 ppg which was 2nd. I think it's safe to assume that a better offense this year would have allowed the defense to come close to last years ppg average and allowed the team to compete for the division title (i.e. 23 ppg + defensive scores against less than 20 ppg given up).

Last year, the team won 2 games when the defense gave up more than 20 in the regular season (Seattle and SD). That’s including a game when Rivers threw 2 interceptions and gifted the team the W. 

The offense was average last season and when they were called upon, they normally didn’t come through. This season again, couldn’t come through. They won 10 games last year under a perfect storm. 10 games wouldn’t have cut it this season when the division is much much better.

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