Quote:A writer over in Tampa Bay did a really worthy job of looking historically of the success rate of QBs, by when they were chosen in the draft. The in-depth study found that QBs chosen higher had a significantly higher chance of being a successful QB. Another way to think of it, is the more teams pass on a QB, the greater the odds that QB will not be the franchise guy you are hoping to find.


QB Success Rate: (using a very strict measure for success)

Pick 1-15 53%

Pick 16-30 27%

Pick 31-45 20%

Pick 46-60 14%

Over pick 60 7%


Unfortunately, the best NFL talent evaluators in the world can not eliminate the failure rate, but have done a good job of increasing the odds of success if you use them. Gabbert and Leftwich turned out to be the 47% failure rate in the first half of round 1. Garrard was a 4th round success, beating the odds that was stacked against the pick. The Jaguar results in this QB lottery has left many "gun shy" in the selection of QBs high in the draft, and over confident in their belief that they can "get one just as good" later.


Also, I think many feel that the top 3 QBs in this draft are more valued in their minds as just beyond top 10 pick guys, where the success rate is closer to 1 in 3. Although they (Bridgewater, Manziel, and Bortles) are currently the perceived top QBs in this draft, they are also being perceived by many to not be the caliber of QBs that would typically be considered as picks in the top 5 of a draft.


The reality is probably that the only way to get one of these QBs, that would have a higher possibility of success than the later other QBs in the draft, would be to reach, as often is done to get QBs in drafts. I don't think anyone likes the idea of reaching for a pick that only has a 1 in 2 (or 1 in 3) chance of success. However, if you want to get a young QB into the rebuilding process, one is left with either using the draft lottery or exploring a trade. I leave it to Dave to determine that best way to get the job filled...it's why he's paid the big bucks.

 

The irony of it all is that Tampa hit with a QB in the third round last year.

 

But really, a study like that is a self fulfilling prophecy.  Assuming rational behavior and rational grades, the better players are going to be rated higher.  This distribution isn't likely to be much different for any position.

 

I will add, though, that studies also show that the bust rate his higher for QBs in the first round than it is for linemen (OL and DL, which includes DEs.)

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