(04-10-2019, 01:45 AM)rpr52121 Wrote: Sigh, why do so many people post without actually reading the article or watching the interview. Even though Saban has skin in the game, he does have a point.
Quote: “I think in the last five years — not counting this year — there’s been 380 players, or there about, go out early for the draft and 25 percent of those guys didn’t even get drafted. And another 25 percent weren’t on a team in three years. So that means 50 percent of the guys that went out early for the draft had failed careers.” “The person that loses in that is the player.” — Nick Saban
From the 2014 NFL Draft through 2018, there have been 479 underclassmen to leave school early and enter the draft. Among them, 155 of those kids went undrafted. Using my top-notch calculator skills, that means one in every three underclassmen won’t be even picked if they leave school early. In 2019, a record of 135 underclassmen declared for this year’s NFL Draft.
Plus salaries for the anyone drafted after the 2nd round is getting ripped off by the rookie wage scale. Sure the NCAA is not paying the players, but it is trading 1 extra season of NCAA games (14-15 games) vs 16 NFL games + preseason, to get much more money in the first contract that will be the only contract a large portion of NFL players ever receive.
Harrison is not best example but he is still a valid one. He was the #93 pick, so he got a $3,388,032 contract with signing bonus of $803,032. If he stayed a year and got drafted in 2019, say 28 spots higher (1st pick of 3rd round), he would get $3,662,728 with signing bonus of $1,142,728. If he went as the last pick of the 2nd round, he would get $4,586,046 with signing bonus $1,355,304. I know he was great as a rookie, but what if he levels off. What if he becomes inconsistent playing a full season? What if the coaching staff changes next year and he no longer fits the scheme?
Yes, there is a gamble because of potential injury or falling draft stock because of a loaded class. But there is also risk of injury in the NFL, of not getting a second contract, or living up to his expectations. Most potential players in the draft pool expect to be drafted, make a team, and be in the league longer than the average player so they can make bank in free agency. However, most of them are wrong.
I'm not saying players are the ones at most fault. The players are getting screwed by everyone else. NCAA has fault for not giving players rights to use their likeness or get promotional deals. NFL and NFLPA are at fault for a ridiculously imbalanced rookie wage scale. If their family situation allows plays to stay an extra year, it can be the best play.
Using the "three years in the league" example set forth by Saban - Ronnie Harrison will have earned $1.9M of his contract at that point. It compares poorly to the amount he
might have been guaranteed if he stuck around and his draft stock improved. But it is unquestionably major life changing money for 98% of these kids coming out.
(he also looks to be a lock for a lucrative second NFL contract and his skillset is versatile enough to play safety in basically any scheme)
Many of them are simply unwilling to roll the dice on an injury ruining any chance of getting paid by staying in school another year.
Obviously it's a poor decision for players whose draft stock is low but has real potential to improve if we're operating in a vacuum, but the injury concern has to be considered.
There are also those players that stay and see their draft stock diminish due to the team losing starters and waning, coaching changes, or being forced to play through injury.
Ideally these kids would stay, take advantage of the scholarship money, finish degrees and improve their draft stock if they even have any. But I totally understand why so many don't.
