(04-25-2019, 06:05 PM)MalabarJag Wrote:

(04-25-2019, 01:12 PM)mikesez Wrote: You're correct that the warming or change up to this point has been beneficial and seems to correlate to more pleasant temperatures in high latitudes and higher crop yields.
However, it's also led to more frequent intense hurricanes. And more frequent intense, multi-year droughts.
But if the warming trend continues the ice caps will melt significantly and sea levels will rise significantly.
North America will lose Miami and maybe New Orleans and Houston too.
Half of Bangladesh will be underwater.
Other areas will be abandoned because their heat and humidity will literally kill. the west coast of India is likely to be first, but other areas will follow.

Hurricanes are not more frequent, nor stronger. The ACE Index is flat vs. time. Multi-year droughts are no more frequent either, and tornadoes are down.

It would take millennia to make a dent in Greenland or Antarctica. We will be in another ice age long before there's a significant sea level rise. The tide gauges show the same rate of sea level change that they have since they were first recorded, some with more than 100 years of data (different from site to site because of land movement, but all show a constant rate). Catastrophic sea level rise, and especially an acceleration in the rate, are flat out lies. Don't believe me? Go look at the tide gauges on NOAA.gov.

Actually, we've seen a very active stretch of hurricane seasons, and with more intense hurricanes than usual. Take Michael for a wild, near to my heart example. Hurricanes in the Gulf in October have a consistent pattern. They strengthen fairly quickly up to around 100-110mph, then they stop strengthening and fan out. Michael went nuts despite intense wind shear that should have torn it apart. The only reason it stopped strengthening at 160mph is because a beach got in the way of its party. It did this because the sea surface temperatures on the Gulf were anywhere from 2-5C higher than they've historically been in October. You can look at Irma, Maria, Matthew, take your pick of storms that greatly beat their intensity forecasts. And you can say, "Well, the forecasting was bad." Well, yeah, it was at the longer intervals, because lots of tropical forecasting relies on previous trends and averages until the 48-72h window. If storms are getting significantly bigger and more powerful, that's going to mess with forecasting of them, and it's also going to tell you that these things are bigger and more powerful than they used to be.

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