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The Experts Were Wrong: First Quarter Growth Hits 3.1 Percent

#12

(06-05-2019, 04:35 PM)jagibelieve Wrote:
(06-05-2019, 01:15 AM)Jagfan44 Wrote: I agree with that, this tariff thing may hurt us in the short term but we are better off in the end. 

I am curious as to other people's thoughts on this tariff/trade war thing, specifically with China. Nowadays, it seems like just about everything is made in China. I recently ordered a new camera, I received it, it's an amazing camera (Sony A7iii if anyone is interested). The entire time I was assuming that this is Japanese made, sure enough to my dismay "Made in China". It's a high end Sony camera, really? Also, all of my lenses, we are talking $1,000+ a pop, all made in China. It seems that the Chinese are now capable of making higher end products and when compared to a similar item made in Germany or Japan (where lots of good optics are made), the price difference just doesn't justify something that is only slightly better. 

As for the whole idea, if we are losing a few hundred billion $ every year with China, eventually they will have a bigger economy than us, thus more money than us. Also considering, it's not like we are making up that difference with other countries as we seem to have a trade deficit with just about every other major country. If this continues at it's current pace I believe the only thing that could stop the deficit from growing is that eventually China will get to the point where they are almost as big as us, meaning making things in China will no longer be economically viable as quality of life and wages grow in China, as with what happened with Japan. Still though, with 1 billion+ people in China, there should always be cheap labor available. I have to say, it's depressing thinking about this type of thing, combine that with the fact that schools in China are very good, I suppose the only deterrent we have is keeping the largest military in the world at all times and at all costs.

The thing is, labor is CHEAP in China.  When government has as much control over their people that China does it drives that.  Not all products produced in China are good quality.  There are far more products that come from there flooding the U.S. market.  Keep in mind, our society is a CONSUMER based society.  People are going to always buy the lesser expensive product no matter what it is (for the most part).

Consider this.  Say you want/need to buy a set of hand tools to fix something mechanical around your home.  Are you going to buy a good quality set of tools such as Snap-On or the lesser expensive Kobalt (Lowes) or Husky (Home Depot) set of tools?  Most of the latter brand of tools are made overseas in both Taiwan and China.  While they all will get the job done the "Made in USA" tools will perform better and last longer, but they are more expensive.

In our CONSUMER based society people are always going to go for lesser priced goods and lesser quality.  Regarding the labor cost, I'm just going to throw some random numbers out there that are probably not accurate, but in the U.S. factory labor probably averages around $10-$15 per hour.  In China the average wage is probably more like $3.50 per hour.

What that translates to is that to make a "widget" in the U.S. might cost a company $100.00 per unit after paying wages, materials etc.  In a country like China or Mexico that cost is probably more like $30.00 per unit.  Again, I'm just throwing out arbitrary numbers to illustrate my point, the actual costs are probably different.  What tariffs are designed to do is raise the cost of producing that "$30.00 widget" in China closer to or more than the $100.00 that it costs to produce that in the U.S..

With tariffs in place, the camera that you bought might have "justified" you purchasing one made in Germany or Japan and the "price difference" would not be much.

Thank you for your reply, your responses are well put and overall a nice read. 

I am very aware of the labor cost in China and the fact that it is much cheaper to make something in China than it is here in US, or in other developed nations such as in Europe or Japan. 

I work in E-commerce and sell a variety of used items, tools being probably my main category so I am familiar with the brands that you mentioned, such as Snap On, Mac Tools, Dewalt, Kobalt, Etc. It's very nice to have nice tools however the cost of for example Snap On, is just outrageous. Even though I hardly ever use them I have a Snap On tool box with quite a few Snap On and Mac Tools in it, they're nice to have and I acquired them at great prices, they hold their value very well so why not. The quality is absolutely there however a full box for a beginner mechanic, easily $20k+ with Snap On. Compare that to maybe a few thousand going with the Chinese or Taiwanese sets, our companies just can't compete because it seems to be such a limited market that can actually afford these American made items. This is ofcourse where the concept of tariffs comes in, to make this gap smaller to encourage consumers to purchase American made. 

With that said I have an eye for quality items and recently I have been buying some things from Amazon, half of these items I have bought are literally instant returns. The reviews are good, the prices are decent but as soon as I see the item and give it a feel and look over, it's absolute crap, something that should be sold at a flea market for $5. If you actually care to check, you can find most items on Amazon directly on the Alibaba website.

As someone who is not fully informed on the retail model but still a self employed business minded individual, it seems that with these "gadgets" all these entrepreneurs have to do is hit on 1 out 10, the profit margins can be so ridiculously high considering the production costs that you are able to flop on most, and still make lots of money. 

The reality is, most people in any society are not good at anything so once an industry like manufacturing disappears, there goes the jobs of that "most people".
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RE: The Experts Were Wrong: First Quarter Growth Hits 3.1 Percent - by Jagfan44 - 06-06-2019, 03:20 AM



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