Quote:Regarding your 3rd point.


Is there really that much a difference in talent from 3 to lets say 11, assuming Clowney goes first overall? Is the difference in talent worth more than an extra 1st round pick next year?


Trading back doesn't exclude you from drafting a QB all together but it may cause you to miss out on the “big 3 QBs".

 

This year?

 

I would say yes.

 

Look at the Jaguars biggest needs (QB, DE, interior OL ) and look at where the talent seems to be at this point in the top ten (QB (3), DE/LEO (3), OT(2) ) .

 

At QB, Bridgewater, Manziel and Bortles all are projected by most observers (FWIW) to go in the top 10.   Currently, there are three DEs/LEOs that are similarly projected (Clowney, Barr, Mack), two, maybe three OTs (Matthews, Robinson, and maybe the kid from FSU whose name escapes me, or maybe the kid from Alabama), and maybe one WR (Watkins).  Assuming the current projections hold firm as a general rule (and there will likely be movement between now and May), who would be left that could really have an impact for the Jaguars assuming a best case trade down scenario at 11? 

 

Most of the QBs would likely be gone-though it's possible maybe Carr/Manziel is there at 11 (considering Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland and Minnesota at minimum all need QBs, that is asking a lot).  The DEs/LEOs will be gone.  Watkins will likely be gone.  There might be an OT that slides down to 11, but OT isn't the area of need along the OL-G and C are the biggest needs there.  Maybe you take a chance on Mike Evans-but you still have nobody to get him the ball, and like all rookies, he'll have to adjust to the pro game.  Maybe you take CJ Mosely.  Do you take the Mich St. CB (Dennard?)

 

I just don't think need fits value very well for Jacksonville outside of the top ten at this point, so I think there is a big difference between 3 and 11.

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