So I went through this simulator and picked every game for every week. Tried to be super honest with myself, across the Jags remaining games I gave them wins vs every team except the tinhorns and clots.

It came down to the Jets beating the Bills in week 17, which gives us the WC over the BIlls.
However, if in week 17 we beat the clots, the Bills can beat the Jets and we'll get the WC.

In this scenario the tinhorns win the AFCS
and there are 3 teams battling for two WC spots, Jags, Bills, clots.

I just hope the Bills hot start simmers down and perhaps I'm wrong about being swept by the clots and tinhorns (but I do have us sweeping the tacks for the first time in what seems like forever)

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(10-21-2019, 07:31 PM)High Octane Wrote: W - Jets
L - Texans
L - @ Colts
W - @ Titans
W - Bucs
W - Chargers
W - @ Raiders
W - @ Falcons
L - Colts

Finish 9-7. Hopefully that would be enough in this weak AFC.
The Final game at home vs. the Colts could be a W, which would put us at 10-6 and in the playoffs.

We really need to play well in that stretch of 5/6 definitely winnable games.

This is the exact scenario I discuss above.
Playing out the entire NFLs games we would need the Jets to beat the Bills in week 17, because the Bills would then finish with the same record (and we get tie breakers)
Although somehow I have the Bills starting 9-1 and finishing 9-7 (woof) lol

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Picking just Jags games in the above scenario and letting their simulator run the rest of the NFL Jags have 42% chance of making playoffs (as a WC)

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But if we split all divisional games our chances actually go down to 38%
Oops, if we split all divisional games our chances increase to 51% to make playoffs as WC and 37% to host WC (and a 97% total chance of making it)

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