Quote:http://deadspin.com/study-nfl-teams-have...1378701238

 

Here's your precious draft value board ripped to shreds in a 35 page report done by a professor from the Wharton School of Business which was commissioned by an unnamed NFL team.  Just because you ticked me off.  The value board is a guide.  A tool which has been misused for decades.

Perhaps you didn't read the report, or better yet you read the report with the intent to find a conclusion already embedded in your mind that the value chart is worthless. Not a good way to comprehend a report.


First, Cade Massey's expertise is in psychology and economics. His report focuses on the psychology of drafting which he implies "teams overvalue higher picks in part because they overvalue their own judgment in evaluating players, and that "overconfidence is exacerbated by information."

 

Secondly, because of his focus on economics he says, "the chart is wrong, because it doesn't take into account salaries in a salary cap league. His study looks at "surplus value," or what a player actually gives you compared to what would be expected for his contract worth"

 

Thirdly, in his chart he shows the draft pick as a function of millions of dollars versus "surplus value" which is his designation for performance as a comparison to money. Again the economics of the draft.

 

Fourthly, he uses to value chart himself as a means to conclude "only suckers trade up. Over those 14 years of drafts, they calculated the outcomes of every possible 2-for-1 trade for a first rounder using the Draft Value Chart, and found "overwhelming evidence that a team would do better in the draft by trading down." The team that would have traded down would have gained an average of 5.4 man-starts per season, with roughly the same amount of Pro Bowl appearances, at a cheaper cost."

 

His analysis is more indicative of how GM's are not using the Value Chart correctly since it doesn't include the salaries but that is a narrow interpretation when salaries are not negotiated until after the draft. Furthermore, when GM Richardson is called by GM Tankersly on draft day and given the proposal to trade draft pick X and Y, for his draft picks A and Z, it is a foregone conclusion the draft Value Chart is pulled up on the screen to see the relative balance of the proposal.

 

Consequently, the draft Value Chart is a guide, but to say it has no stock is foolish.

 

Regards....................the Chiefjag

 

 

 

 

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