(03-11-2020, 03:39 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: Prediction
1) Bottom: 16240
2) Bottom Date:  6/19/2020
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 19400

Good call.  This is consistent with the Goldman Sachs forecast which was released this weekend that the Market may see an additional 20% decrease.  That said, after the market took a dive on Monday, I expected a slight bounce on Tuesday (which happened) and rebalanced my 401k from 40% mix of bonds and money market to 94% (taking effect after Tuesday's market close).  I figured out how to shift funds frequently without being cited for excessive trading. In any event, I'll likely go Large Cap when we bottom out, hoping to break even at 25,000 and profit off of any Dow increases above that.

I was just in Puerto Rico as they issued a total lockdown which restricted the population to only go outside to get take-out food, grocery shopping, and go to the pharmacy.  Beaches were closed as well as everything else.  If we go that route we may get down below 16,000 and a 20%+ unemployment/furlogh rate (consistent with Senate discussions that were leaked by Bloomberg news).   Absent of any breaking vaccine and cure, this restricted business & social life could very well run through Q2.

Also, the referenced to Dow @ 25,000 also applies to NASDAQ and S&P500  equivalents based on their market price but the Dow is much more common to reference in conjunction with the current market.  Large caps actually swing more in conjunction with NASDAQ and S&P500.

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