03-27-2020, 01:50 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2020, 01:51 PM by JagJohn.)
I fully know this will cause much disagreement, but here is my plan:
It will be vital for us to nail these first 4 picks: #9, #20, #42, #73. We need starters from each spot, and players that can hopefully instantly offer something to improve the teams immediate chances and also be long-term fixtures.
I will list the position we should target, the players in order of preference, and my reasoning.
#9 - WR (Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs) - These 3 WRs are all elite prospects; it's not everyday you get a chance at an elite prospect at WR (basically never in FA, and usually only around the top 10 of the draft). Any one of these guys would instantly change the whole dynamic of our offense; defensive coordinators would have to pick their poison. Last year, after Chark emerged, opponents began to scheme him out of games and our whole offense really struggled as a result. Adding one of these guys would give us a really strong WR corp, and would open up so much in terms of game-planning. The counter-argument will be that this a deep WR class, and there will be many guys drafted after the top 3 who also turn into top WRs in the league. This is true, but after these three there are no guarantees. I honestly can't see how (barring unforseen mishaps) these 3 are not excellent WRs in this league for years to come.
#20 - OT (Wills, Becton, Wirfs, Thomas, Jones) - Realistically I expect this would end up being Josh Jones, which is slightly controversial, but I rate him just below that top 4 group. I believe all 5 would represent a significant upgrade at LT. Maybe not immediately, but long term (we pretty much know Cam is never going to be any more than average at best at this stage). This move would also allow Cam to go inside where he may well project as a better option long term anyway, hopefully improving two spots with one move, similar to Schobert allowing Jack to move to Will. Suddenly our O-Line and WRs both look like they could be the strongest parts of the team: Crucially, these first two picks have given Minshew the absolute best chance to build on his rookie season and develop into a franchise QB.
#42 - CB (Okudah and Henderson are obviously gone, leaving the Jags to pick their highest rated guy still available from Fulton, Gladney, Diggs, Terrell, Johnson, Igbinoghene, Arnette, Dantzler, Hall) - The biggest need on the team, and the value fits here to select a guy who can be a good CB in this league for a long time.
#73 - DT (Of course Brown and Kinlaw are gone, leaving the Jags to pick their highest rated guy still available from Blacklock, Madubuike, Davis, Davidson, Gallimore, Elliot, Fotu, Hamilton) - Another big need, and a postion where the Jags may try to move up to secure one of the higher rated prospects from that list.
So the obvious criticism of this draft is that, by not going defense early, we are going to have a terrible defense next year. The truth is, I think that is the case whatever we do in the draft; Derrick Brown and CJ Henderson are not going to suddenly elevate our defense back to being good. I think we take our lumps on defense this year, ride with the patches in FA and load up on options in the later rounds of the draft hoping to find players who could outperform draft position and become long-term contributors. Next year, when we will have a boat-load of cap money, we can start to fill those big holes on D, and hopefully put together a good unit.
The most important thing for me, is that this draft immediately turns our offense from a "maybe they will be OK" outlook to "they should be pretty good" outlook. Suddenly we have multiple options in the passing game, an OL that suddenly appears to be a team strength, and a good RB. Minshew suddenly has all the tools he needs to succeed, and if he does hallelujah! If he doesn't, we have the draft capital to replace him in 2021.
Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting this would suddenly make us a good team next year, but it could make us a good offense next year (albeit with some learning curve). The defense could then be emphasized in the 2021 offseason, and we should be set to make a push in that season.
* one caveat: obviously if a massively higher rated player falls (like Allen last year), I would pick him... E.g. Okudah at 9, Kinlaw at 20... Always gotta be flexible.