(03-31-2020, 04:32 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote:

(03-31-2020, 04:14 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: Eh... don't worry about it.  Your "calling me out" was correct in hindsight.  I went back and looked at the charts and each time I made a comment I was being optimistic (which is my personality by default).  Nobody can see into the future and nobody predicted the violent decline in the markets myself included.

As far as today?  I don't think that we will test market lows in the near future.  Barring some major catastrophic event I don't think we dip back down below 20k on the DOW.  Again as I have said numerous times, I am by no means a professional and my comments are just my opinion.

So far my only short term "fail" is buying Boeing at a higher price.  I initially wanted to buy at $150 and it shot past that last week.  When it pulled back into the $160 range I went ahead and took a small position.  It's now down to my initial "buy" price of around $150 (actual close today is $149.43).  The thing is that this company will survive the COVID-19 pandemic and they will recover, especially with government backing.  They are essentially the "only game in town" as far as aircraft manufacturing.  The stock will go back up to it's 52 week high eventually.  If I wasn't so lazy I would find the story that I saw where the government is buying more P-8 aircraft (basically a 737) as well as foreign military purchasing the same thing.

It's not about "timing the market" or "predicting a bottom".  It's all about looking to the future and investing long term.

Not worried JIB. We may disagree often, but I know you don't take things personally and in my eyes you've always been extremely fair in adjudicating the board.

And true to form, I think we probably will see it dip down again. I don't really see how it can't, except it's not. So I'm completely confused and on the sidelines lol. 

Your MSFT is looking real nice though.

No worries.  Today was the last day of Q1 so many money managers are re-balancing.  What I would like to see is a "moderate" stock market the rest of the week meaning swings up or down being less than say 200 points on the DOW.

My prediction, and as always take it for what it's worth (my opinion), is that the market will hold in this range for this month.  I don't see a major move either up or down.  Once we do start to see an upward trend don't expect it to go up as quickly and dramatically as it came down.

What I am doing right now is taking "baby steps" back into the market by taking small positions in what I think will pay off in the long run.  In other words, I liked Micro$oft at a certain price and think the price will be worth quite a bit more a year or two from now.  I'm not really concerned about the day-to-day price.   Certain sectors will also do well over time.  The entire stock market is basically "on sale" right now as long as you do diligent research and make wise decisions.

My overall prediction (for what it's worth) is that we might see a bit of an increase until Q1 numbers come out.  I kind of think that markets right now have that "priced in", but the numbers are going to be ugly.  Basically over the month of April I think markets will be flat.  Again, this is just a feeling that I have.  I don't really see the market falling back to the low of around 18000 on the DOW.  Falling back to my target of 20000?  Perhaps, but I don't think it will happen.

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