(04-29-2020, 09:13 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: You all can debate each and every topic related to the November election but I honestly think there is 1 driving force that will determine how people will vote.  The ECONOMY is the end all be all for the "center aligned" voters in the swing states.

If this economy is continuing to progress in November and people feel as if they can get their lives back together work-wise and financially, Trump wins.   If we have another "major" setback and small business owners go bankrupt, corporate america continues its layoffs, and the stock market plunges, Biden Wins.   I can't take another market collapse or unemployment so if the former happens, I'm good with that.  I already told my wife I'm considering not voting (as I don't think I can fill in the Trump bubble just yet).  I'm not sold on Biden's financial capabilities when it comes to dealing with the implications of this pandemic or even dealing with Xi over the next 4 years.

While I agree that the economy is the driving factor, my belief is that nobody is truly on the fence anymore about whether to vote Biden or Trump. It's about whether they want to vote. 

I believe that if the DNC didn't crap the bed in 2016, dem voters wouldn't have felt disenfranchised enough to vote. Also, does Biden motivate black voters? Five Thirty Eight tells the story pretty clearly. I don't believe Trump has expanded his base. He'll win if 2016 is replicated in terms of turnout. He'll lose if turnout is similar to 2012.

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