(05-08-2020, 10:43 PM)Bullseye Wrote: (05-08-2020, 07:29 PM)D6 Wrote: My pleasure, Bullseye. Thank you for your insights.
I definitely can relate to why a high % of Jaguars fans would have preferred that the team would have traded down with the Jets or Bucs. My guess is Dave Caldwell elected to remain in the # 9 spot because of at least one of two reasons:
1. The way the Jaguars board was shaped. The drop-off at CB likely was more pronounced than at WR and Offensive Tackle. With the drop-off at DT being less than on most other NFL team draft boards.
2. The high priority of the CB position, both in terms of need and in the system that will be used.
According to both Matthew Stafford and Bob Quinn, Stafford is totally recovered from the back injury. Having said that, I completely agree with you regarding concerns with back injuries. Stafford dealt with a different back injury he played through in 2018. Being that he turned 32 in February, the concern becomes that much more greater.
I recall Michael Cheever. He certainly looked like a long term solution for the Jags. The loss of Cheever, along with the groin injury Fred Taylor suffered, were the two greatest injury setbacks I recall the Jags having in their early history.
Dave Widell's brother Doug played for the Lions a couple of seasons around the time Dave was with the Jags. Doug was a blue collar/ lunch bucket type of Guard.
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There was an interesting article I recently read called "The Barry Wagner Rule." It chronicles Rams' GM Les Snead's reluctance to trade down. In short, the Rams were in the second round and was eyeing now Seattle LB Barry Wagner with their pick. They figured they could trade back a few spots, pick up some extra picks, and still land Wagner. They managed to successfully trade back, but then Seattle traded up ahead of them to land Wagner, who went on to become a great player on a great Seahawks defense. Since Caldwell supposedly has a good relationship with Snead, perhaps he also learned that lesson and shares his aversioin to risk as it pertains to trading back. I don't doubt either of those other factors you cite played into the decision. In fact, I think both helped reinforce his aversion to trade back.
Regarding key injuries in Jaguars history, I would add one more player to tha list. Tavian Banks from Iowa. He was our 4th round pick in 1998, the same year we got Fred Taylor. We got that pick from Buffalo, along with the first round pick used to draft Fred Taylor, for QB Rob Johnson. In short, he was a big play waiting to happen, and I think would have added the extra dimension in the passing game we missed from not having a viable 3rd WR. For those of you too young to remember him here is a link of his college and limited pro highlights. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOwXQ4aPw-E He suffered a devastating knee injury on a cheap shot from then Falcons CB Ray Buchanon and he never fully recovered. Had he remained healthy, I think we beat Tennessee in 1999. But because we lacked that element he provided, and because we had no viable 3rd down receiver, TC decided to try to emulate the Rams had with Az-Zahir Hakim and drafted R Jay Soward in 2000, and we have paid for that ever since.
Quote:Some of the reasons why I believe the Jaguars will closer to the middle ( or in the middle if most things break right ) of the NFL than the bottom, if the core roster remains intact are:
1. The potential and moxie Gardner Minshew displayed as a rookie. He seems to have the 'It Factor'.
2. A highly motivated Leonard Fournette, who can help keep the chains moving if the Jaguars O-Line is even decent run blocking. and hence slow down the opposition pass rush.
3. Better WR situation than given credit for. Especially, with the playmaking potential of Laviska Shenault.
4. A deep TE unit easily could surprise if the injury situation with these players is much better in 2020 than in 2019.
5. The Jags having 3 big time talented edge rushers on Defense. Even factoring in growing pains, including a system change, and a rookie as one of the 3 players.
6. The addition of ILB Joe Schobert should be favorable for Myles Jack, who was set back in multiple ways after the retirement of Poz.
7. A highly talented rookie CB. Growing pains are inevitable. Yet, big plays are likely.
8. DJ Hayden, at Nickel CB.
9. A good pair of Starting Safeties.
10. A top 10 Special Teams unit.
1. I really like what Minshew showed last year both in terms of on field production and intangibles. It's actually refreshing to see a QB that the fans here don't absolutely hate. Nevertheless, we've put our hopes on QBs showing early promise before, to the point where we've passed up guys like Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers, DeShaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes. He is in his third offense in three years (at least), and he's trying to learn this new offense during the Corona virus.
2. I am not as down on Fournette as many have been. It appeared by most accounts he had matured last year, seemingly avoiding many of the knucklehead things that marked his 2018. But he didn't completely purge the bad stuff, constantly late to and falling asleep in meetings. Yes he is motivated, but he is on thin ice and still may end up being shipped off. None of that has any bearing on his blocking, which all too often was not effective enough.
3. WR does seem more promising for us. Chark is producing as I anticipated back in 2018. Shenault has the looks of a versatile weapon and based on the letter he wrote to NFL teams pre draft, he seems to have toughness and intangibles off the charts good. But durabiltiy is a question, as is how refined his route running. I have heard player comps ranging from juJu Smith-Schuster to Anquan Boldin, but I'm afraid he won't be one of those immediate impact guys. A fine WR overall, but may need a year like Chark did. Fortunately we have NcCardell as our WR coac to develop him. I am quite intrigued by the possession and red zone potential of one of our 5th round picks, WR Collin Johnson out of Texas. We haven't had a red zone threat quit like him, though we've tried a couple of times over the years. I wish we would have drafted another speed guy, but I think we did okay.
4. I think our TE group is deep IF Eifert can stay healthy. He's a good TE but his career has been severely marred by injuries. It's also deep if Josh Oliver, our 3rd round pick from last year, can stay healthy and show something. Last year was basically a waste for him. Though I am extremely happy with Jonathan Allen, I would not have minded if we wound up with Hockenson last year had Allen been selected before our pick. Even though I preferred Fant to Hockenson, I liked both and both would have fit a major and perpetual need for us.
5. I agree with the edge rusher thing as a general principle, but with some obvious caveats. First, Ngakoue's is tenuous due to hard feelings of antipathy he has towards the organization. He has done everything possible to burn bridges here, including getting into a nasty twitter beef with the owner's son! I don't know how long he will play for us, if at all. Secondly, Chaisson is very explosive, but hasn't had much college productivity. He could stand to learn some pass rush moves-and if Ngakoue is willing to teach him, he would have two good mentores in Ngakoue and Allen. Speaking of which, I am thrilled beyond words with Allen. One of the most versatile defenders I have seen-certainly in a Jaguar uniform. He can rush with speed and power, and for a man his size, he is quite adept at dropping into coverage, doing so better than smaller guys. To me, if the whole Ngakoue thing is amicably reconciled, pass rush should be a source of confidence for years, irrespective of the front utilized..
6. He performed well in Cleveland, and if we have a NT that can keep blockers off of him, he can be productive here. Though I really like what I have seen of Devon Hamilton, I wonder how long it will take him to develop into that NT.
7. Agreed with Henderson. I was iniitally not crazy about the pick, I have warmed to him. I am concerned about who takes the spot on the other side. I'm not sold on Tre Herndon, and I need to learn more about rookie Josiah Scott, though I like what little I have seen and heard thus far.
8. Hayden has been a pleasant and welcome surprise at nickel for us. I hope he stays with us for a long time.
9. Harrison is talented but inconsistent, and supposedly has some knucklehead in him. I am not crazy about Wilson at all, and I am hoping undrafted rookie JR Reed out of Georgia replaces him.
10. I am happy with our special teams. To me, the only thing we lack is a strong return unit.
Bullseye, I can definitely appreciate the impact that losing out on Bobby Wagner had on Les Snead and anyone who is more reluctant to trade back as a result. Ultimately though, I think each draft situation needs to be evaluated separately. Using, the past as reference points.
The Tavian Banks injury certainly had an enormous negative impact on the Jaguars. That much more with what you mentioned regarding the consequences of the high risk/ high reward R.J. Soward selection in Round 1, in 2000. With the Jaguars problematic salary cap situation back then, practically the last thing the team could have afforded was the path Soward's NFL career went. The Banks injury ended up causing the equivalent of a football version of a 15 + vehicle chain reaction accident to the Jaguars franchise.
1. I think this season will shape the future of the Jaguars at # QB. If Gardner Minshew builds on his impressive rookie season, adjusting well to a new Offense despite the Coronavirus situation, he has a good chance of being a long term solution at the position. If Minshew doesn't take a step forward, the Jags probably will end up with a high enough draft pick that they should be able to land a blue chip QB in the 2021 Draft. Especially, with their draft resources to trade up, if necessary.
2. If Leonard Fournette is shipped off, a very long season is likely ahead for the Jaguars. Having a viable running game is essential with a relatively inexperienced QB ( in a different system on top of it ) and plenty of Offensive Line pass blocking question marks.
3. Collin Johnson looks like an X-factor. If produces in the red zone like then Lions Rookie TE Joseph Fauria did in 2013 as an UDRFA, Minshew Mania is going to spread on both sides of the Atlantic.
4. I thought T.J. Hockenson was a very good selection by the Lions with pick # 8 ( based on how the first 7 picks went and the Lions not trading back ). Yet, I was hoping the Jags would take Hockenson or Jawaan Taylor ( who the Jags shockingly were able to draft with pick # 35 ), in order for the Lions to draft Josh Allen with pick # 8. I didn't think Allen would get by the Giants at # 6, if he even lasted that long.
5. From my point of view, the current situation with Yannick Ngakoue puts a cloud on the Jaguars 2020 season more than anything none COVID-19 related. I'm not sure if there's a viable path to get the situation resolved that would satisfy both parties to the extent it would be in the best interest of the Jaguars. Ngakoue has differential skills. But how far can the Jaguars organization go to satisfy him contractually, w/o causing more damage than benefits??? It's going to take an innovative solution to resolve this. Not to mention, Ngakoue being willing to sign a contract extension.
6. Devon Hamilton is another x factor, as well as the Jags overall NT situation vs. the run. Getting pass rush efficiency would be a bonus. So much depends on getting the opposition into expected passing situations, in which the talented edge rushers can tee off on the opposing QB. Not to mention, keeping the Defense fresh in the given game and in the overall long season.
7. If Press Man Coverage is the emphasis, I think Rashaan Melvin can handle the # 2 CB position as a stopgap. Keeping in mind, that his ball skills were a pronounced problem issue last season with the Lions. Melvin's lack of versatility is not ideal. But he can be a bridge in a highly specialized role.
8. D.J. Hayden overcame a life threatening football injury as a College Senior and other lesser injuries to get to where he's now. I'm happy for him! In his one season with the Lions, Hayden was almost exclusively used on the outside ( not counting special teams ), playing about 1/3 of the time in a rotation with CB Nevin Lawson ( currently with the Raiders ). I thought Hayden was above avg. against the pass and below avg. vs. the run in 2017. Keeping in mind that he wasn't playing his natural position.
9. One additional Safety that I forgot was on the Jaguars roster, who is intriguing, is Josh Jones. He's a talented player, who couldn't stay on the field because of health often enough with the Packers. Both the Packers and Cowboys gave up on him. Jacksonville easily could be his final NFL opportunity. Maybe, a greater sense of urgency could lead to potential becoming production?
My overall impression with the Jaguars Safety situation is that there are more differing opinions than at most, if not all, other position units on the team.
10. Who do you believe will emerge as the Primary Kickoff Returner and Primary Punt Returner for the Jaguars?
Thanks again for your terrific input and to everyone else who has been adding to this thread.
