(05-28-2020, 02:22 PM)Kane Wrote:

(05-28-2020, 09:09 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: 10 Worst Sophomore Slumps

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1659...fl-history


Best Sophomore Seasons

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1699...fl-history

That article is from Summer of 2013 so it isn't taking into consideration the 2013-2019 seasons....


For example, Jameis Winston was about on par his sophomore season compared to his rookie year. But he slumped greatly in years 3 and 4 (and 5 if you count how bad his INTs were, and they were).
Mariota actually was much better his sophomore season compared to his freshman year, throwing for more yards and TDs and 1 fewer INTs.

Baker Mayfield slumped big time from year 1 to 2. He threw for about the same yards but fewer TDs and more INTs (in more starts).

Goff didn't play much as a rookie but improved from what we did see immensely and that improvement upticked once more in year 3. Though he took a bit of a dip in year 4.

I think the sophomore slump is more pronounced when a rookie comes in and is great right away. We tend to talk about a "slump" when teams have more tape and can figure out how to attack a guy they didn't have much knowledge on the year before.
In Minshew's case, as magical as he was at times, he wasn't really great most of the year. He made the most out of a bad situation with a lot of mess around him (being a rookie, not preparing to be starter, no TE, OL a bit of a mess, etc) I think teams quickly figured out how to attack our offense last year.
This year, it'll be a new offense, built around his skill sets and he's a year removed from being green.

What I'm getting at is I suspect that we'll see more of a gradual increase in productivity rather than a sophomore slump. Because honestly, if he slumps from where he was (as promising as it was) that means he'll be bad, not average. And we'll certainly be looking at a QB early next draft.

My Sophomore season prediction for Minshew is 32 TDs 8 INTs [And I'll say way down on fumbles like only 4-5, with maybe 2-3 lost, compared to 13-7 last season] 4k yards. Which is a slight improvement in all stats with 2 more games played (*4 additional starts).
I mean technically the 8 INTs isn't an improvement but only a slight uptick with more starts so we'll call it a wash there.

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Here's a great article about the sophomore slump done by Harvard students.
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2019/12...n-the-nfl/

I respect your opinion, but i guess we will just have to agree to disagree on the subject of how his season went.

When i look at Minshews season and the adversity he went through with being thrown in the fire the first game of the season after just a few plays, with a playbook not built for him at all, losing the majority of options at tightend, the lack of protection he had from the line and even the lack of time he had to gel with the offense. One man can only do so much and i feel like he nearly peaked that. Yes he made some mistakes, yes he could of done better. But the dude single handedly made the team watchable. Its really hard to put up many more stats than that if you dont have the weapons and skilled players around to make everything work. 

But as to your point about the sophomore slumps being the case of teams having more tape and knowing how to counter it, thats where my worry lies. I understand we are starting a whole new offensive scheme and i really hope its built around the strengths of players rather than trying to force players to change their game play. What if the scheme is [BLEEP] and the team in general plays like crap? Minshews ceiling is only going to be so high based off what he has around him. And honestly with the damage this front office has caused, it makes me question how much effort and heart some of these guys may have coming into the season. Theres a big difference between playing hard and giving it your all.  


Thats why i ask about him being given another year if his numbers drop or do we think the team will turn towards drafting another QB early on?

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