Quote:The math for what you want is already done, too. The bust rate in this study is a little over 90% (2-7 rounds combined), you will find the bust rate for 1st rounders is right around 50%. Does that mean it is discredited? If you want to bread it down more it's 50% 1st round, around 20% 2nd round, around 10% 3rd round, and day 3 is 4%. 

 

Of course what constitutes a bust is subjective. For example, these stats say that people like Dalton, Schaub, Henne, and Garrard are hits which to me is a very borderline designation.

Wow, I was just typing out a response showing all the QBs taken in the first round dating back to 2000 when I screwed it up on my Nexus and lost it all and was noticing how it seemed like 50/50 on the first round picks. I mean there was a year with David Carr, Joey Harrington and Patrick Ramsey all in the first. How could it be any worse haha.

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