I'm going to say 7-9
Bears, Browns, Phins, Bengals, Steelers, Lions, Bolts, clots, and tinhorns account for 11 games (2 each for clots and tinhorns)
7 wins between those 11 games. All of these teams were either bottom of the barrel along with us or at least have enough holes of their own that they are winnable games via improvement from our offense of a year ago and at least being enough on D to not get blown out by rookie QBs or older broken QBs. Divisional opponents tend to be close games even when rosters aren't evenly matched and I honestly don't think the either the clots nor tinhorns got better this off season.

Vikes, Ravens, Green Bay, Hell... even the tacks... are easy to mark as Ls for now. Playoff teams with good QB play and very good running attacks and 3 out of the 4 have very good D's.

I know a lot of people are going to say I'm overly optimistic or got teal shades on... but I'm counting 7 wins, not saying anything about playoffs. I just think Shew takes a step, Chark emerges as a top tier WR in the league (dare I say, top 5). We finally get production from the TE position, and the OL is better than bad (Cam is better, rookie Taylor takes a step, and Bartch solidifies the RG spot). I can see us averaging 30 points a game and that'll be enough to beat teams that are just as bad as us or worse.
The recent release of Fournette doesn't move the needle much for me. Honestly as much as I defended the dude in the past, he was miscast, overdrafted, and rarely did we win BECAUSE of him. I doubt we miss him that much.
The trading of Yan means the D takes a hit for sure. But Allen was already showing to be a stud. We just need to be a little lucky with some veteran FAs like Scho and Timmy being better than average and I think the D will do enough to not suck totally. Still probably will rank in the 20s overall somewhere but good enough to prevent guys like Foles/Trubisky, Mayfield, Tua/Fitz/Rosen, Taylor/Herbert from running train on us.

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