(10-12-2020, 10:14 PM)NeptuneBeachBum Wrote:

(10-12-2020, 09:35 PM)Predator Wrote: They aren't stacking the box and daring you to pass the 40% of the time that Thompson is out there because they already know what to defend.

It also makes the odds of a run go up significantly during the other 60% so it would make perfect sense based on odds to stack the box a lot when Thompson is on the sideline.

It's what happens when your incompetent OC telegraphs 40% of the plays.

Think about it this way:  if you were a defensive coordinator game planning our offense... what would you do?  

You'd look at our offense an evaluate it first.  So far this season, we have had a decent running game with a nice little find at RB as a rookie free agent, and an improved O-Line (particularly in the running game at least).  Our passing game is West Coast philosophy (i.e. short, quick passing game, occasional shots and lots of check downs).  Most of our passing yards have been from yards after catch on short routes and check downs.  How would you stop this?

Answer:  Single high safety with the SS down, box loaded, and a Cover 3 zone behind it.  Occasional zone or man blitz.  You could play Cover 2 against us if you felt good about your corners tackling against outside runs.  That is exactly how Houston defended us and shut our running game down.  That is also similar to what Miami did to us.  I did not get to see the whole Cincy game, so I'm not sure there.  They are daring Minshew to throw deep... no one appears to be afraid of that.  They are allowing short completions that can be tackled quickly (hence Minshew's high completion %), but are not afraid of him taking deep shots.  In other words, they took pour running game away, dared us to throw deep, and we didn't get it done.  I am a little afraid the "book" is out on Minshew now.  He is going to have to show he can expand his game and hurt teams downfield, or it will get worse.

You are totally making this more complicated than how Gruden is making it for a DC.

Through 4 games, a RB that is getting 40% of the snaps, is averaging 1 carry per game. These people study trends so they have seen enough through 4 games to realize when Thompson is on the field we are passing the ball.

So in these situations the defense knows they can pin their ears back and rush the passer and play coverage with total impunity.

Now considering how poor their run defense is and the fact Gruden said he plans on giving Robinson 20-25 carries, you can expect almost all of those carries will occur when Thompson is on the sideline. In order for the jags to run that many times, they would need to use about 40% of their total plays to do that. That means that the 40% has to come out of the remaining 60% of the plays that Gruden doesn't telegraph to be a pass by putting Thompson on the field.

Based on odds there now is a 2 to 1 chance that the jags will run on plays where Thompson is on the sideline. Because of that, the defense now knows they can stack the box in those situation because they can now expect to see a run play 2 out of 3 snaps just based on pure odds.

You have now given the defense the ability to call the right type of formations and get the proper personnel on the field to best defend those plays 80% of the time.

Even for the worst defenses in the league it becomes like taking candy from a baby and we have seen defenses taking total advantage of that for at least the last two games.

No offense or QB can excel when you give the defense an 80% confidence level that they can get the right type of formations and the right personnel on the field to best defend the play they are most likely to see.

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