(10-13-2020, 10:58 AM)NeptuneBeachBum Wrote:

(10-13-2020, 04:49 AM)Predator Wrote: You are totally making this more complicated than  how Gruden is making it for a DC.

Through 4 games, a RB that is getting 40% of the snaps, is averaging 1 carry per game. These people study trends so they have seen enough through 4 games to realize when Thompson is on the field we are passing the ball.

So in these situations the defense knows they can pin their ears back and rush the passer and play coverage with total impunity.

Now considering how poor their run defense is and the fact Gruden said he plans on giving Robinson 20-25 carries, you can expect almost all of those carries will occur when Thompson is on the sideline. In order for the jags to run that many times, they would need to use about 40% of their total plays to do that. That means that the 40% has to come out of the remaining 60% of the plays that Gruden doesn't telegraph to be a pass by putting Thompson on the field.

Based on odds there now is a 2 to 1 chance that the jags will run on plays where Thompson is on the sideline. Because of that, the defense now knows they can stack the box in those situation because they can now expect to see a run play 2 out of 3 snaps just based on pure odds.

You have now given the defense the ability to call the right type of formations and get the proper personnel on the field to best defend those plays 80% of the time.

Even for the worst defenses in the league it becomes like taking candy from a baby and we have seen defenses taking total advantage of that for at least the last two games.

No offense or QB can excel when you give the defense an 80% confidence level that they can get the right type of formations and the right personnel on the field to best defend the play they are most likely to see.

I think you are over-simplifying it too much.  And you are changing your arguments (I am guessing because you realize you were wrong in your first one now).  I will chalk that up to you learning.  Good for you.

Thompson is on the field in more obvious passing situations, so yah, teams will be playing pass then.  On third and long, it really doesn't matter who is on the field... the defense will be playing it as an obvious passing situation.  Gruden clearly trusts Thompson in the passing game more than Robinson, either with pass pro or receiving.  Thompson has been on the field for 35% of the offensive snaps this year, with the majority being on 3rd down.  Its the down and distance or game situation dictating the defense more than the personnel.  I don't think you're exactly cracking the DaVinci Code that teams are going to defend against the pass more on 3rd down and medium to long, or when they are playing from behind later in the game.

35% of the plays is way more than obvious passing situations or third downs.

We had 1st and goal from the 6 yard line towards the end of the 1st half and Robinson never saw the field again until the 3rd qtr. Obvious passing situation? Third down? That brilliant decision and trust in Thompson by your lover boy Gruden ended with zero points.

The only thing making that an obvious passing situation was the fact Thompson being out there.

The fact that you argument is now based on having to pretend to pretend that Thompson is only out there on third downs or obvious passing situations just shows that you that you fallen flat on your face in this argument. Will just chalk that up to never having a factual argument in the first place.

Enjoy your ignorance. You must be a very blissful person. Lol!

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