(10-17-2020, 10:26 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:

(10-17-2020, 10:18 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: And what polls do you recommend?

https://bongino.com/pollster-from-trafal...oral-votes

It's all about pollsters smoking out the "shy" Trump voter.

Trafalgar has some interesting methods.  They ask the respondent how they intend to vote, then they ask how they think their neighbor is going to vote, and make an adjustment based on that response.  

They were just about the only pollster to get Michigan correct in 2016.  On the other hand, in the 2018 Georgia governor's race, they had Kemp leading Abrams by 12%, when Kemp actually won by 1%.  

What you are relying on is that this one pollster will be right this time again, and all the others will be wrong, and that all the others made no change to their methods as a result of the 2016 results.  Plus, what Trafalgar is predicting is a very close Trump victory in the electoral college.  So you're kind of drawing to an inside straight there.  

One other thing you have to think about is that in 2016, there were a lot more undecided voters, and they made a late break toward Trump.  This time, there are not that many undecided voters.  

But- I will admit that there is a possibility that the polls are all wrong.

And also, a note about the "enthusiasm gap."  It is true that Trump voters are much more enthusiastic about Trump than Biden voters are about Biden.  But on the other hand, Biden voters have a BURNING HATRED of Trump, and that makes them very enthusiastic about voting.

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