Obviously, Biden is the favorite at this point, but the polling in the swing states is much closer than the national polls.   On the other hand, if you take the current swing state polls, and assume they are just as wrong this year as they were in 2016, Biden still wins.   But any movement towards Trump in the national polls will move all the swing states as well, so there is a pretty small margin between a Biden electoral college blowout and Trump squeaking out a win.  

I expect it to be close.   But I think if Trump loses either Florida or Pennsylvania, he will lose the election.  We'll know Florida pretty quickly, because Florida starts counting the absentee ballots early enough to have them all counted by election night.   Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is embroiled in court cases over when they have to cut off the absentee ballots, and they don't start counting until the polls close, which means it could be several days before we know the results in Pennsylvania.

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