At this exact point on the calendar, Biden is polling about 5% better than where Clinton was in 2016 on the exact same date. In 2016, the national polling averages had Clinton with a 4% lead, whereas right now, the polling averages give Biden a 9% lead. Also, Clinton was polling at 45%, while right now Biden is polling at 51%.

60 million people have already voted.

Betting odds (people actually putting money on it) favor Biden by 65% to 35%.

So there are only two questions: are the polls correct, and who will turn out and vote. Pollsters claim they have corrected the errors they made in 2016. And you have to remember also, if you changed just 80,000 votes in certain swing states from Trump to Clinton, Clinton would have won.

I think Trump has a chance. But if I had to put money on it, I'd bet on Biden.

A lot of you guys say things like "I think Trump will win, because everyone I know is voting for Trump." Surely you see the fallacy in that.

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