(10-27-2020, 10:19 AM)NeptuneBeachBum Wrote:

(10-27-2020, 09:39 AM)Talented Kalamari Wrote: We can respectfully disagree. I appreciate the subtle jab there though.

I do throw the occasional jab, but not in this case.  QBR is a very complex assessment and difficult to understand compared to a simpler stat like Passer Rating.  With QBR, a completion for a 5 yard gain is valued more on 3rd and 3 to the get the 1st down versus 3rd and 12.  Run after catch is factored in, so Minshew's nice TD throw in the end zone against LA is valued more than his check down pass to Robinson, where the running back made an amazing play and ran it in on his on merit for the TD.  ESPN protects its intellectual property and does not release their full algorithm for it, only telling you what is considered in the evaluation.  Contrast that with Passer Rating, where anyone with basic math skills can calculate it from the stat line.  Not at shot at you... in this case, anyway.  lol

QBR takes a legitimate problem but way way way overcomplicates the solution.  
For instance, why shouldn't the QB get credit for YAC.  The QB chose to throw the ball to the guy who was open enough to get YAC.  The QB presumably hit the guy in stride to set up good YAC.
YAC is not the problem.
And then the garbage time argument.  If the QB had hit his marks in the first and second quarters, there would be no garbage time.  His bad play in the first half gets averaged with the better play in the second half, so as long as we are looking at complete games, what's the issue?

I would rate QB's much more simply.
I'd just make 3 adjustments to the old passer rating:


1) Pass yards on 3rd and 4th down count as 0 unless the play results in a 1st down. 
2) QB sacks count as pass attempts, and yards lost to sacks count against pass yards
3) passer rating counts interceptions more than touchdowns.  That's usually backwards; most interceptions don't change the game much.  So make touchdown passes worth more positive points than interceptions are negative, but, an interception returned for a touchdown or an interception that allows the other team to run out the clock, cancels out a touchdown.

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