(10-28-2020, 07:30 PM)NeptuneBeachBum Wrote:

(10-28-2020, 07:20 PM)mikesez Wrote: Do you think you've changed my mind?

Do you ever do things that other people would think are a waste of time? I mean, you're here, right?
I mean the DVOA that FootballOutsiders made their name on is basically a supercomputer version of what I would do.

Of course I can't change your Beautiful Mind.  That would require you to be logical. 

But DVOA is not even in the ballpark of what you have been discussing.  DVOA is actually analogous to QBR; it takes into account things like down & distance, score gap, area of the field, and the opponent you play against to provide context.  DVOA, like QBR, is not just simple stats like you've been advocating for.  So you are actually coming around to agreeing with me, despite all your protesting.  Maybe there is hope for you yet?  

 
No. You can't convince me.  If the thing is unknowable, go with your instincts and feelings.  If the thing can be quantified, quantify it with an open process that can be replicated.  If it can be quantified, verify the work of the people quantifying it.  Don't trust something you can quantify if you can't also verify it.

The Football Outsider guys put their work out there and (if I recall correctly) some of their inputs are subjective grades from analysts. "The guard got beat on that play, but he wasn't beat that bad, I'll give him a -2 instead of a -3". And that's a fine method. As long as you tell people "part of this was expert opinion." For all we really know, the ESPN guys may be doing something similar, they don't tell us unfortunately.

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