(10-29-2020, 07:56 AM)mikesez Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 12:33 AM)NeptuneBeachBum Wrote: This is what you said.  You said you wanted to simplify it.  So you could verify it more easily.  Now you're talking about a complicated formula like DVOA?  LMAO.

I have already convinced you.  You have realized you are wrong and have now just agreed with me that a simple stat like Passer Rating (or your bastardized version of it) is inferior to a complex one like DVOA (or QBR).  At first said you wanted a simple measurement, which you presented as essentially passer rating plus sacks (basically a weird and worse version of ANY/A).  Now you have come all the way around to DVOA... which is nowhere close to where you started this discussion.  DVOA uses essentially the same contextual strategies as QBR.  You went from extremely simple to uber complicated in 5 posts.  And don't for a minute tell me you have played with the DVOA calculations.  Because, in your own words, you like it "simple".  Not to mention the DVOA formula is proprietary with Football Outsiders; just like QBR is with ESPN.  So you have no clue what you are even talking about.

But I am glad you finally came around from your original perspective to mine.  I am happy to have enlightened you.

I didn't say DVO was better than simple calculations like passer rating or yards/attempt.
I said, if you want complex, you can still do better than QBR. Football outsiders have explained enough of their methods that somebody else with 25 years worth of standard play-by-play text files and computer programming skills could replicate it.  ESPN has not done this.  They don't want you trying to replicate or check them.

1.  You said, "DVOA that Football Outsiders made their name on is basically a supercomputer version of what I would do"; showing you changing your mind about QB assessment and your recognition that contextual evaluations are better than simple calculations.  But it also shows your ignorance that DVOA is philosophically the same as QBR.

2.  You said,  "Football Outsiders have explained enough of their methods that somebody else with 25 years worth of standard play-by-play text files and computer programming skills could replicate it.".  Again, you are displaying your full ignorance here.  Football Outsiders and ESPN have both explained the generalities of how they do their calculations, but neither has released the specifics of their proprietary formulas... its their copyrighted intellectual property.  So when you say Football Outsiders have "put their stuff out there", you are have no idea what you are talking about.  They have not done that any more than ESPN has.

3.  You state your preference for DVOA over QBR by asserting "don't trust something you can quantify if you can't also verify it".  But you can't verify or replicate DVOA.  You don't have their formula.  You are just making another attempt to grasp at straws to save face in a discussion that has gone dramatically off the tracks for you.

4.  Quit while you are behind.  Way behind.

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