(12-27-2020, 08:56 PM)Predator Wrote:

(12-27-2020, 07:10 PM)Upper Wrote: Yes, every other pick combined is more likely to produce a franchise QB than the first overall pick...good job showing that math. However, the first overall pick is far more likely than any other single pick.

Of course the point goes over your head.

What it shows is that a good GM can find a franchise QB without having to rely on having the first overall pick.

This assumes:

1.  There are great QBs to be had beyond the 1st overall pick in a given draft; and

2.  That good GM is in a position to draft that great QB.

Of course there are numerous examples of GMs finding great QBs at various points in the draft.

But in order for that to happen, you have to count on more and more teams to get it wrong.  The lower a great QB falls in a draft, the more luck plays into the GM getting that.

Put this into perspective.  Bill Walsh was considered a QB/passing game guru.  He spread the WCO throughout the league.  He drafted Joe Montana in the 3rd round.  But here's the thing....he was set to draft his college QB, Steve Dils, instead of Joe Montana.  He had to be talked by team scouts into taking Montana over Dils.

The reasons it's kinda pointless to compare the number of great QBs taken first overall to the # of QBs taken in spots other than #1 overall because in any given draft, there are 255 more picks than the 1 #1 overall pick in a draft.  But taking a bad QB first overall happens e because people make mistakes in player evaluation...just like Bill Walsh.  Not because they picked first.

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