(03-30-2021, 09:52 AM)Mikey Wrote:

(03-29-2021, 09:44 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Well of course there are risks associated with the strategy, including all the ones you list above.

However, if they never made the trade up, and drafted a QB at 12 and he flopped, they'd still have to consider overpaying in FA (assuming a viable QB ever got on the market) or trade draft capital to get in position to get the replacement.

Furthermore, if they never made the trade up and missed out on their QB in such a strong top heavy QB draft like this year's class, there's no telling when they'd get the chance to get another top QB.  As I was saying earlier, next year's QB class does not look anywhere near as strong as this one.  Right now based upon what I've read, there's only one QB that is carrying a first round grade, and he doesn't seem to have the same grade as Trevor Lawrence..and perhaps not Fields nor Lance.

You could also argue that because they have Garoppolo, they aren't truly desperate at the position, and therefore are less apt to make a catastrophic error at the position.  Desperation could lead to a reach, and possibly even offering more for a lesser player.

That said, the part of me that opposes this trade does so in part because of Mac Jones, and in part because of the price.  I do not assert that Mac Jones is a bad QB or for that matter that he can't be a successful QB in the NFL.  However, he does NOT in any way offer the array of physical attributes as the other top QBs in this class.  He doesn't have the combination of size, arm strength, athletic ability, speed, etc as Lawrence, Fields, Lance, or even Wilson.  If he had the physical attributes of Elway, Luck or even a Cam Newton, plus the intangibles Mac Jones seems to offer, I could better understand the willingness to pay so much to trade up.  But there are reasons the general consensus is he is rated below the other four guys.  As an NFL QB prospect, his physical attributes seem nondescript.  Furthermore, he played with absolutely overwhelming surrounding talent during his tenure at Alabama, including Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle- all of whom were either first round picks last year orwill be first round picks this year.  That doesn't even include the linemen protecting him and opening the holes for a guy like Najee Harris.  Nor does it include a typically star studded defense that routinely produces NFL talent.  I haven't seen a QB come from such a powerful program since Steve Walsh came from those late 80s Miami teams, or perhaps more recently, Leinarrt from the early 200s USC teams. 

Because he is a relatively nondescript physical specimen at the position, that brings the price to move up to get him into heightened scrutiny.  In reviewing the prior trades up for first round QBs since 2000, I didn't find a single trade that  involved 3 first round picks to get the deal done.  But most of the guys those teams moved up for were better physical specimens than Jones, the one exception being Eli Manning.  I think the one initial saving grace to this deal is the the first year cost isn't excessive.  The 49ers could still have a relatively normal draft class this year.

I agree with everything you said here. The 9ers being this aggressive for a QB like Mac is risky. They had to know that someone else was planning to move into the 3-6 range for him, otherwise I don't see the urgency of doing the deal a month in advance of the darft.