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Bullseye · 03-30-2021, 11:28 PM

(03-30-2021, 11:04 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote:
(03-29-2021, 10:03 AM)Mikey Wrote:

....would you trade three firsts for a guy who isn't ready?

Hypothetically, if I knew for a fact that the player would have the career of Tom Brady, but it would take him a year to reach that level of play, then yes, I would. A franchise quarterback can change the face of a franchise for over a decade. Waiting one year may be a price many teams would be willing to pay. I'm not saying Trey Lance is Brady and I'm not saying I like the trade by San Francisco. I'm just trying to make sense of it. Lance may take more time to develop and be more risky, but some people believe he has a high ceiling because of his physical attributes. If you give up that amount of trade capital, I find it unlikely they are doing it for someone that doesn't have a high ceiling. I don't think you make the trade for a medium-high ceiling guy even if he may have a higher floor or be more ready on day one. Besides, if you take them at their word that they aren't interested in trading Garoppolo, then it's already a given that they don't expect the draft pick to start initially. You don't pay a quarterback $26 million to be a backup.

Absolutely correct.

Let me piggy back on this argument for a moment.

If you were the GM of a QB starved team, how much would you be willing to pay the Packers in trade for an in his prime Aaron Rodgers? The same MVP and Super Bowl winning QB who has made multiple Pro bowls.

If he were 26 and the Packers put him on the trade market, how much would you pay to get him?

I don't have to be Packers GM Brian Gutenkunst or their other executive Mark Murphy to tell you one first round pick wouldn't be close to enough to get him. Two? Getting warmer, but given the importance of the position and the likely number of bidders for the pick, you'd likely have to pay more to get him.

Would that price be at all mitigated by the fact he wasn't a first year starter?

Of course not!

Besides, even in the case of hall of fame caliber QBs, most times their first year as a starter are no great shakes. Troy Aikman went winless as a rookie. Peyton Manning threw 28 INTs as a rookie starter who went 3-13. Both of them are in the Hall of Fame. As TheDuke007 pointed out, brady wasn't a starter in his rookie year, either. Mahomes is considered the best young QB in the game. He rode the pines for most of his rookie year. Reid didn't think he was ready. Does that lessen his value now?

The first year as a starter is probably one of the lowest criteria you should use to determine the worth of a QB prospect.

Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!