(04-20-2021, 10:24 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:

(04-20-2021, 06:53 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: I would argue with the underlined sentence.  Players should be drafted based on what the GM expects them to do in the future.  That is all about potential.  Past performance is an indication of potential.  So are a lot of other things that have to be taken into account, such as height, weight, speed, and what they show on tape.  But drafting has to be based on potential and the likelihood of reaching that potential.  Potential = talent.

Not always. Terrell Owens was a slow WR. He ran a 4.65 before getting drafted and he is now in the Hall of Fame. Tom Brady had a "dad bod" and his workout numbers didn't stand out at all. Again, he is the GOAT at his position. Jared Allen was one of the most consistent sack artist in college football, but his numbers didn't stand out. Teams thought he wasn't athletic enough. He now sits #12 on the all time sack list and will be a HOF some day. 

Mike Mamula was a "workout warrior" who came out of nowhere and blew scouts away with his athleticism at the 1995 draft. Because of this, he was projected way too high. Teams saw that and projected him to be an NFL star, based solely on his "potential" despite being considered a mid 2nd or early 3rd round pick before the Combine. He only played 5 years in the NFL and never achieved double digit sacks in a season. 

Darrius Heyward-Bey was a very average player at Maryland. He totaled less that 1500 receiving yards in 2 years and only 8 total receiving touchdowns, yet he ran a blazing 40 time at the Combine and the Raiders made him into something he wasn't, based on the workouts alone. He should've been a mid round pick, but the Raiders took him 7th overall in 2009 and he never became a 1000 yard receiver. He came close in 2011 with 975, but every other year he never even came close. His second highest total was 606 receiving yards. He never reached his supposed "potential."

Remember Matt Jones? He was chosen based on "potential." He was a college QB and never played receiver. He had tremendous workout numbers though, so for some reason beyond my comprehension, the Jags selected him with the #21 pick in the 2005 draft with the intention of changing his position and making him a WR. It was one of the biggest reaches in NFL history and we got burned. 

Give me consistent college production

Well, if you're a bad judge of potential, that's not helpful.  All you're citing above is when people incorrectly judged potential.  

Potential doesn't mean workout numbers.  Potential = having the necessary abilities or qualities to become successful in the future.  The future.  Not the past.  You're drafting a player for the FUTURE.  His potential (his future) is much more important than his past.  

Potential means projecting him into the NFL and what he can become.  

Tom Brady was all potential.  His past production in college in no way pointed to what he would become.

I object to your saying players should be picked based on what they have done in the past.  No.  They should be picked based on what they will do in the future.  They should be picked based on their potential.  And, of course, the likelihood of them reaching that potential.

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