(07-09-2021, 02:31 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:

(07-09-2021, 01:49 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: You're right, I don't cut the roster, and I have no doubt they'll talk him up until the day he's cut (it'll happen eventually one way or another), but there is a reality that cost carries expectation with it, and a first round pick is a high cost.

If your point is we have bozos running the show that don't understand value or its importance, you may be right. It may even be that you think they'll think a guy with low production is still valuable. That may be right, too, but I doubt it. The main way of measuring the value of a player is in production, though I'm sure if he's really making a difference without high production there will be some way of statistically measuring that, too.

My point was that you have a perspective of cost vs production that isn't shared by our GM and HC as well as many NFL personnel decision makers. 

Assigning expectation of top ten production numbers to draft picks is wildly unrealistic. The very nature of the draft and the high percentage of players that fall short as professionals renders your approach an exercise in disappointment. 

The Jags FO clearly has a different view of positional value than you and I, but I simply recognize that they have deemed a versatile RB to be a valuable enough piece of their scheme to spend major draft capital on it.  I wouldn't do it, but I get why they did it and I don't necessarily think high production numbers are what will justify the pick if it does turn out to be successful. 
If Etienne is able to emerge as a big play threat as many anticipate in this suspected scheme, the respect he'll get from opposing defenses will be valuable whenever he's on the field whether he touches the ball or not.

I don't think it's that they don't share my view, I think it's that they ignore the player's value and instead think they're somehow making some kind of synergistic value by taking guys they think fit what they want to do. It's a bad policy and shows someone as a bad coach/GM, but the league is full of coaches desperately trying to succeed by aping what they saw another successful coach do.

Really, though, the big question is, if Etienne is a big play threat and the defense has to respect him then he'll need to be on the field a lot, and he'll have to get his touches... So why wouldn't he be successful?

If he's a change of pace guy that's not on the field much then it's an even stupider pick.

If he's actually good, then unless Lawrence somehow turns out to be terrible, Etienne should have success from a production standpoint. If he can't do that even with good QB play then defenses aren't going to respect him anyway. Defenses respect players that can beat them, not guys that can be easily shut down.

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