(07-09-2021, 03:03 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:

(07-09-2021, 02:53 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: I don't think it's that they don't share my view, I think it's that they ignore the player's value and instead think they're somehow making some kind of synergistic value by taking guys they think fit what they want to do. It's a bad policy and shows someone as a bad coach/GM, but the league is full of coaches desperately trying to succeed by aping what they saw another successful coach do.

Really, though, the big question is, if Etienne is a big play threat and the defense has to respect him then he'll need to be on the field a lot, and he'll have to get his touches... So why wouldn't he be successful?

If he's a change of pace guy that's not on the field much then it's an even stupider pick.

If he's actually good, then unless Lawrence somehow turns out to be terrible, Etienne should have success from a production standpoint. If he can't do that even with good QB play then defenses aren't going to respect him anyway. Defenses respect players that can beat them, not guys that can be easily shut down.

They do not share your views on "value." Obviously. And they aren't ignoring value, they just don't agree with your (arbitrary) definition.

Regarding the bolded: You're incorrect with the "he'll have top get his touches" statement and that was the point. 

Etienne could VERY easily come nowhere near the numbers you stated earlier in this thread as what would justify his selection -- but still be very valuable to the team as a big play threat who gets enough touches for defenses to respect his presence allowing other offensive players to thrive.

In 17 games, if he's a big play threat, you think he won't get 50-60 catches and 170-200 carries?

An average NFL team has something like 65 offensive plays a game. We'll assume a Jaguars 50-50 run pass split for the sake of the exercise, so about 32 rushes and 32 passes a game. Since Lawrence will probably be good, and Etienne will probably be getting shorter easier passes and not running a lot of deep patterns he'll probably have a chance at a good completion rate, at least 75%, so around 4.5 passes thrown to him over Lawrence's 32 attempts per game. Then rushing around ten times out of the 32 attempts the team has.

So 3.5 pass catches a game with 11 yards per catch and 3 or 4 TDs over a season, and 10 or 11 carries a game with 4.5 yards per carry and 6 or 7 TD over a season.

Really if he can't do that I don't know how he'll be scaring defenses. But, if coach Meyer was looking for a first round change of pace player to come in and get shut down then he's clearly out of his depth.

I think they'll probably have him on the field for more than half the plays, though (at least all of the third downs, plus a lot of others) It just doesn't make sense to spend first round picks on players you don't intend to play.

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