(09-23-2021, 06:21 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:

(09-23-2021, 06:09 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: We disagree on everything so the fact that I double-downed on cruise lines and bitcoin this morning at 10am should be of no surprise.  If you look at all of the industries, most have exceeded their pre-covid stock prices.  The cruise lines are the very last industry to recover and many are still 25%-50% below their December 2019 price.  Cruise lines will recover and there is a really good change to recognize a 50%-100% profit on these investments so I'm in.   Another factor is many sectors are waiving covid testing if one is fully vaccinated.  If and when that happens to the cruise lines, it's going to boom like it has never seen in the past.  We will soon get to the point where the symptoms of covid are so minimal with vaccinated people that nobody will care as we currently see at sporting events.  I've never been on a cruise but I understand that those that have often are loyal to going annually.  As such there is a major pent up desire for a large population to get back on their cruises that increased prices won't deter them.  That industry is so profitable that they have been able to sustain ~ 2 years of non-sailing.   

Also, one needs to factor in that investors/traders often consist of the younger generation (these kids are making $100k out of college).  They don't think the same way we've been trained to think.  They want cheap stocks that come with some risk and a lot of reward.  With the price of cruise line stocks, I see little risk with a high level of reward.  Heck, I got in Carnival at $20 for the most part and it's only up to $25 right now.  Their average pre-covid share price was ~ $50-$55/share so even if it goes up to $40 that's still a 100% rate of return on the $20/share price and a 60% rate of return on its current price of $25/share.  It won't happen overnight but I can definitely see $40/share by December 2023.    Bring on the Boosters the Boomers are gonna cruise !!!!

You know I love me some cruise industry, but I think you are ignoring the impact of inflation under the Biden administration and how that will tighten entertainment dollars for the middle class which is the life blood of the cruise industry.

I agree to a certain extent but I do believe that people have prioritized things much differently since covid and are going to make certain they set $$ aside for vacays and such.  So many people have made a killing on stocks, home sales, and labor demand that there is plenty of discretionary $$ to go around.  It's like 75% of the population has made a killing since covid and the other 25% still think life in unfair and are awaiting handouts.  I'm counting on that 75% to party upon the re-opening as they have started doing.

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