(10-13-2021, 07:42 AM)Bullseye Wrote:

(10-13-2021, 05:55 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: Every player should have an NFL role, otherwise there's no point in drafting them, that's an obvious tautology. When Meyer said he wanted Tooney but settled for Etienne he was actually saying he was taking someone to fill the Harvey [sic] (Harvin?)role there regardless of ability, even if the guy was a running back with a lot of mileage and not a guy primarily known for his receiving ability.

When a team drafts players based on demonstrated ability, which is combination of college production correlating to NFL production (so taking a quarterback with a fullback's skillet, like Tebow, wouldn't apply) along with positional value and measurable athletic ability, rather than a fantasy about them filling out the roster in a perfect way to make some idiot's scheme work, then that's bap. The Jaguars have a bad tendency to ignore ability and start going into fantasy when they make their picks. Either that or they have no ability to observe demonstrated ability or access positional value.

If they really just are terrible at evaluating talent then that's even worse than being a needs drafter, and there's no need to defend them.

Again, I don't see the willingness to do that as being wholly unmindful of ability.  Before the draft, there was much speculation by the exoerts that Travis Etienne was a potential late first round talent, with pre draft and real time speculation having him with the Jets, Bills or Bucs.  In Lindy's 2021 draft preview magazine, typically released in early March, Etienne was given a 2nd round grade.  While not on the mark exactly, was at least in the ball park compared to where he went.  Those who would have the biggest critique of the pick did so due to positional value (i.e. the idea you should never take a RB in the first round), and the lack of need (i.e. the Jaguars already had James Robinson at the same position), not because of the overall lack of talent Etienne possesses. It's not as if Meyer took a guy like Kylin Hill (projected by Lindy's as a 5th rounder) at that spot.  Might UM have been saying he would fill the role regardless of POSITION?  That is more plausible to me.  In UMs offense at Florida, Harvin was a receiver, though in many instances he played RB.  He valued the versatility his explosiveness and agility provided in Harvin's case.  A player of lesser speed and explosiveness (i.e. lesser talent) would not be able to fill a Harvin type role.  It's not as if he randomly drafted a kicker or an interior OL to play the role.  There had to have been some correlation between the skill set to fill the role and the player selected.

Etienne had demonstrated ability, based upon your own definition.  He had outstanding college production, and his speed and explosiveness by most metrics would seem to readly correlate to success in the NFL.  It goes back to perceived positional value.  While there is a growing sentiment that RBs should not be taken in the first round because of guys like Robinson, Alvin Kamara and Arian Foster who were all found later in drafts if drafted at all, the fact is with very few exceptions, NFL history demonstrates teams, even successful franchises, value RB enough to draft them in the first round (see Pittsburgh this year with Harris, taken exactly one spot before Etienne).  Does that mean the Steelers got that pick right?  No, but it does mean they don't necessarily share the view about positional value that many of us do.


Now if they just flat out suck at evaluating talent, which sadly is a possibility at this point. then that IS worse than a needs drafter and definitely should NOT be defended by anyone wanting to see the Jaguars succeed.

(10-13-2021, 05:55 AM)SeldomRite Wrote: Every player should have an NFL role, otherwise there's no point in drafting them, that's an obvious tautology. When Meyer said he wanted Tooney but settled for Etienne he was actually saying he was taking someone to fill the Harvey [sic] (Harvin?)role there regardless of ability, even if the guy was a running back with a lot of mileage and not a guy primarily known for his receiving ability.

When a team drafts players based on demonstrated ability, which is combination of college production correlating to NFL production (so taking a quarterback with a fullback's skillet, like Tebow, wouldn't apply) along with positional value and measurable athletic ability, rather than a fantasy about them filling out the roster in a perfect way to make some idiot's scheme work, then that's bap. The Jaguars have a bad tendency to ignore ability and start going into fantasy when they make their picks. Either that or they have no ability to observe demonstrated ability or access positional value.

If they really just are terrible at evaluating talent then that's even worse than being a needs drafter, and there's no need to defend them.

Again, I don't see the willingness to do that as being wholly unmindful of ability.  Before the draft, there was much speculation by the exoerts that Travis Etienne was a potential late first round talent, with pre draft and real time speculation having him with the Jets, Bills or Bucs.  In Lindy's 2021 draft preview magazine, typically released in early March, Etienne was given a 2nd round grade.  While not on the mark exactly, was at least in the ball park compared to where he went.  Those who would have the biggest critique of the pick did so due to positional value (i.e. the idea you should never take a RB in the first round), not because of the overall lack of talent. It's not as if Meyer took a guy like Kylin Hill (projected by Lindy's as a 5th rounder) at that spot.  Might UM have been saying he would fill the role regardless of POSITION?  That is more plausible to me.  In UMs offense at Florida, Harvin was a receiver, though in many instances he played RB.  He valued the versatility his explosiveness and agility provided in Harvin's case.  A player of lesser speed and explosiveness (i.e. lesser talent) would not be able to fill a Harvin type role.

Etienne had demonstrated ability, based upon your  own definition.  He had outstanding college production, and his speed and explosiveness by most metrics would correlate to success in the NFL.  It goes back to perceived positional value.  While there is a growing sentiment that RBs should not be taken in the first round because of guys like Robinson, Alvin Kamara and Arian Foster who were all found later in drafts if drafted at all, the fact is with very few exceptions, NFL history demonstrates teams, even successful franchises, value RB enough to draft them in the first round (see Pittsburgh this year with Harris, taken exactly one spot before Etienne).  Does that mean the Steelers got that pick right?  No, but it does mean they don't necessarily share the view about positional value that many of us do.  Just the year before, the Chiefs took a RB in the first round.  They are pretty good at finding talent, as their two Super Bowl appearances in the last two years will attest.

Yes I meant Harvin. I post with a tablet, a lot, and it will change names if you don't pay attention.

As for your greater point, Etienne showed ability as a running back, and frankly not elite ability, just decent ability. Drafting a running back with one cut ability and decent speed in the first is too high.

Drafting a player to put them in a role you don't even have a good indication they can fulfill is the height of idiocy.

(10-13-2021, 08:05 AM)JagFan81 Wrote: This is an interesting conversation and one that gets much closer to the real problems that we have and why we are stuck in this endless loop of bad seasons. We are just very bad at player retention and who we pick up, in FA or draft.

Nearly every year we are picking top 5 which pretty much guarantees a high quality prospect. Ive always felt any 1st round pick up until around pick 27+ should be good enough to push for a starting position for any team. We have the BAP vs Need debate every offseason but as Bullseye pointed out earlier, we are weak in so many positions our needs are many. 

Ive complained for a few years that we let too many players walk after rookie deals as we view them as not good enough or not worth the cash but i also think we have done a bad job at developing that talent through poor coaching and endlessly changing coaches that stops us developing systems and fine tuning plays for individual players. Its painful seeing 'busts' for us go to other teams and have success and something we are seeing more and more.

We have had a number of talented players come here in recent years and then left through trades or contracts expiring and not replaced them with similar or better quality players which then means we have to spend future draft picks and cap trying to find better replacements. Its just a cycle of diminishing returns.

No team has 1st round picks at every position and every team needs to find those 4th round and later picks that they can develop into starter quality. No team is perfect at this but we seem to struggle and not be able to do this far worse than any other franchise and we need to figure out why or we will be stuck in this loop.

The Jaguars' problem is they keep drafting players too high based on their perceived need instead of picking an elite player regardless of imagined need.

Sure those guys go somewhere else and are productive, but that's because they're just a role player there, not the engine.

When it comes to NFL players there are three levels, elite engines, role player trailers, and anchors.

The first kind of player makes it possible for a team to have an elite unit. You can't have an elite unit without at least one elite player that either always, or almost always wins their matchup. Ramsey is that kind of player, Calais is that kind of player. The Jaguars currently don't have any player like that. If Trevor continues to develope he'll be able to make good players seem elite one day, but he's not fully there, yet. These guys are engines because they pull your teams overall quality forward.

The second kind of player can look like an great player when they have an elite player with them. Ngakoue is an example of that kind of player. In 2017 and 18 he looked borderline elite. Once no over was around him he stopped winning. Same for Josh Allen right now. Really good talent, not an elite talent as a pass rusher. The jaguars have a few players like this, such as Chark and Shenault. They'd both look great with someone like Julio Jones pulling attention from them. These guys are trailers, an engine and move them forward, but they can't make that difference on their own.

Then you have your anchors, guys who drag the team down with their poor ability. The jaguars have had a lot of guys like this over the years. Fournette and Taven are examples of this. Guys who needed everyone around them to do well in order to not fail, or who had middling talent and poor effort and work ethic. The Jaguars have drafted way too many guys like that over the years.

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