(11-21-2021, 08:58 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:

(11-21-2021, 01:19 AM)jaglou53 Wrote: History has clearly demonstrated that taking a wide receiver in the first round is very often a mistake. Look no further than the Jaguars as evidence of this. Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, Justin Blackmon and R.J. Soward were all disappointments- at best. The list of first round busts at this position is endless. That doesn't mean a receiver should never be taken. Examples of "can't miss" receivers who were justifiably taken in round 1 include Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Jerry Rice and Randy Moss.

On the other hand, 2nd round wide receivers have very often out-played their draft position. If someone were asked to name the best receivers currently in the NFL, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill would be near the top of that list. None of these players were first rounders and Hill was taken in the fifth round. Jimmy Smith and Allen Robinson were both taken in the 2nd round while Keenan McCardell was almost an after-thought when taken in the 12th round by the Browns in 1991.

The 2022 class of receivers certainly has a lot of talent, but there are no players I'd consider as "slam-dunk" superstars of the future. Jameson Williams looks like a potential star, but his body of work is limited. I also don't particularly like the reason he gave for leaving Ohio State indicating the wide receiver room there became "too crowded." The other top receivers all seem to lack some element in their game which may keep them from being a true number 1 receiver. Some are not quite fast enough and others lack the stature to be true number ones. That is the reason I'd wait until round 2 and try to sign a proven receiver like Chris Godwin in free agency. By the way, Godwin was a 3rd round pick and has out-played first rounder Mike Evans in Tampa.

That could be said for any position. Just because you chose the wrong guys in the past, doesn't mean you should give up on drafting that position in round 1 in the future. I remember some people on this board, before we locked up the #1 pick and were assured Trevor Lawrence, saying we shouldn't pick a QB in round 1, because we had failed at drafting a franchise QB in the past. That's just crazy! 

As far as our failures at drafting a #1 WR, c'mon. Some of those were just boneheaded picks. Matt Jones wasn't even a WR and we spent a 1st round pick to experiment and try to convert him to WR. Who does that? On top of that, he turned out to have a cocaine problem. Reggie Williams was a possession receiver who was over-drafted and had no chemistry with our QB's. Soward was a pick that was panned by a lot of people and he turned out to have a substance abuse problem as well and just didn't have the mental toughness to be an NFL player. I truly believe Justin Blackmon would've been a really good NFL WR, had he not tanked his entire life by being an alcoholic. This team thought he could get passed it and we learned a very valuable lesson by taking a gamble on him. Of the 4 examples here, 3 turned out to have serious substance abuse problems that either tanked their career or greatly contributed to it. That just tells me that we need to do better background checks on guys before we draft them and avoid guys with substance issues. As far as I know, none of the top WR's in this coming draft have those issues and if they did, we shouldn't draft them. 

As far as Adams, Kupp and Hill goes, Davante Adams should've been a first round pick. He was my favorite WR in the 2014 draft and I was absolutely livid when we took Marqise Lee over him. Adams also has a HOF QB throwing to him, so he ended up making out like a bandit. Cooper Kupp is a tremendous WR, but he also has the benefit of playing across from Robert Woods. Those two make up one of the best WR tandems in the entire NFL. Tyreek Hill had all the talent in the world, but he fell in the draft, because of a history of off the field domestic violence issues. Even if he were available today, I wouldn't sign him, because he's a scumbag. 

I disagree about Williams. I see a superstar in the making and I believe a couple other guys could be stars as well. It doesn't bother me at all that he left OSU, because he was buried on the depth chart. QB Joe Burrow left OSU for the very same reason and ended up going to LSU where he flourished and became the #1 overall pick and has been very good for Cincinnati. Williams just wanted to go where he could showcase his talents and it has worked. He is showing that he is an elite talent, despite being a new starter and having a first year QB throwing the ball. 

As far as some receivers being not fast enough, how do you know? There are no official numbers on these guys yet. At least let's get some times on these players before making snap judgements about their speed. I think some of these guys are gonna surprise people. 

I'm just not sold on Godwin as a #1 receiver at all. He has the benefit of Tom Brady throwing him the ball and Mike Evans and Antonio Brown playing with him. He certainly wouldn't have that here. Allen Robinson would never come back here and he's basically fallen off the face of the earth, as his production has completely tanked. I also don't see any way Davante Adams comes here either. He would be ideal, but I have a feeling he's gonna try and follow Aaron Rodgers to wherever he ends up. I believe it will be Pittsburgh. I think Roethlisberger will retire at season's end, but we shall see.

There are a couple of things in your response that I agree with. Anybody who said we shouldn't have taken Lawrence due to the failures of Gabbert, Bortles and even Leftwich doesn't know what they are talking about. Many of these same people are already saying he is a bust. I also agree with the need to do better background checks on potential draft picks. I remember hearing comments from another general manager (Tennessee or Houston, I believe) who indicated they actually had one of their scouts hang out at a bar in Oklahoma where Blackmon was supposed to hang out. His problem was obvious to this scout and that's why they passed on him. Coughlin felt that he could control Soward's "bad habits" and we know how that turned out. He was so desperate for a speedy receiver that he likely went against his better judgement that Soward had too many red flags. 

I'm afraid that we must agree to disagree on everything else. I'd love the Jaguars to draft any of those 7 receivers in the 2nd round, but none are worthy of a top 10 pick. What was it about Jameson Williams that caused him to drop in the Ohio State depth chart at receiver prior to his transfer. He did indicate this in his comments. What does that say about his competitive spirit? I don't mean to unfairly judge this guy, but his decision would cause me to have a few questions regarding his ability to handle adversity as well as his competitive spirit. Even if everything checked out fine during his interview, I'd still much prefer players like Hutchinson, Ojabo and possibly Evan Neal. I know you don't like Neal, but I'm not convinced that he would be a bad pick in the top 5. It's much harder to find very talented big guys than those who play receiver and running back. Just take a list at all the 1st round busts at receiver during the past decade. They clearly outnumber those who succeeded to meet their teams' expectations. Chris Godwin has played the majority of his career with Jameis Winston, not Tom Brady. Winston cannot be considered much more than an average NFL quarterback. I'm not saying Godwin is elite, but he'd be a big upgrade over what they have now and is still very young. Pairing him with big targets like London, Burks or Bell would make things difficult on opposing defenses, especially when you add Etienne to the offense.

As far as knowing the speed of the 2022 receiving group, I do the same as you. You base your opinions on watching the games/tape of potential draft picks. Do they meet the "eye test?" Nobody would consider Drake London a speed receiver. I'd love to have him due to his ball skills and size, but he is not what I'd call fast for a receiver. That was my only point. As far as size, Jameson Williams and Jahan Dotson may need to put on weight to endure the pounding they will take in the NFL. Again, I'd love to have either of them- but not in the first round. It's even possible the Jags will have the opportunity to use one of their extra picks to move up to the top of round 2 if a receiver of their choice is still on the board. I'd be all for that, just not in round 1.

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