(11-30-2021, 12:50 AM)Bullseye Wrote:

(11-29-2021, 05:12 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: There are only two players on my wish list- Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux. I really believe that both of these players have the ability to be multi-year pro bowlers. Along with Josh Allen, either of these pass rushers would elevate the defense to the next level. There are still needs to be filled at linebacker, but I'd feel very good about the roster on that side of the ball.

If the Jaguars do not have a top 2 pick, they should try to trade down if Thibodeaux and Hutchinson are gone. At the current time, I don't see any other players who would be great value with the 3rd pick. I haven't seen enough of Evan Neal to determine whether he'd be worth the 3rd pick. Several mocks have him being taken by the Jags with a top 5 pick. After the Luke Joeckel fiasco, they had better be nearly certain that he can excel at LT in the NFL if they do consider him. Kyle Hamilton has also been mocked to us on some boards, but they can't afford to take a safety that high when they have much greater needs at pass rusher and offensive line. Jenkins and Cisco can be a good tandem once Cisco gets the playing time he deserves. 

There is no way I'd trade up for our first pick. This team cannot afford to lose any high draft picks due to the state of the current roster. The price to move up in round 1 would be too high. However, I would strongly consider moving back up to the end of round 1 or the very top of round 2 if there is one receiver or offensive lineman who they love and is surprisingly still on the board. If they only move up a few spots, the price wouldn't be too bad. 

Free agency will obviously have some impact on who they draft. If they land a tackle like Armstead (highly unlikely), I'd pass on a tackle in rounds one or two. If they sign a top receiver like Godwin, that wouldn't change my opinion that they should take another one in round 2 where a very good player will be available. A receiving corps of Godwin, Bell, Shenault, M. Jones and Agnew would be very solid. If Chark comes back for one more season and stayed healthy, this group would be hard for most defenses to handle.

Earlier, I left the impression with someone that I am somewhat averse to taking a pass rusher early.  I want to emphasize that although I think a competent GM can find a 3-4 OLB in the mid rounds, a dominant 3-4 OLB is well worth a top 5 pick.  Lawrence Taylor, Cornelius Bennett, Derrick Thomas and Von Miller are examples of 3-4 edge rushers well worth the top 5 pick.  You could add Aldon Smith to that analysis were he not for his off field issues.  He had a huge initial impact with the 49ers. 
Certainly the Jaguars could benefit from a guy of that caliber.  We need another catalyst on defense.  Having an effective edge rusher opposite Allen will make Allen and the interior DL more effective rushing the passer.  Considering we have problems getting off the field defensively, considering we have created so few turnovers, a defensive catalyst is very important to any future success we want to have. 

Regarding trading up, I do not, in any way, envision trading up into the top 5.  Aside from the fact I think we'll have a top 3 pick by the time the season is over and the draft order is set and there won't be any need to trade up any higher than we are, I'm not sure anyone would be worth the cost to move up one spot.  On top of that, I think the team is more apt to trade back out of the top 5 than they would to trade further up into the top 5.  When I mention trading up, I am envisioning trading up into the bottom half of the first round or possibly in the bottom half of the second.  We currently have two 3rd round picks (our own and Carolina's), maybe a couple of 5th round picks, maybe four 6th round picks, and I think a couple of 7th round picks.  While we need numbers for depth, more importantly we need impact,  Impact is more likely to be gained with higher draft picks.

As for non edge rusher candidates for the top 5, I have some mixed feelings.  Given how awful Taylor has been, if you can convince me Neal could play RT effectively, I might consider him.  But there are three issues with that.  One, I'm not sure he has the feet needed to succeed at LT.  Second, there is the positional value argument that you should not spend a top 5 pick on a RT when you can find RTs later.  Third, there's the issue of Walker Little.  Because he has gotten so little playing time this year, we don't know what he can do.  He had one last minute start at LT, and looked shaky, but it seems like he has the innate ability to succeed at T if given good enough coaching and reps to develop.  If he can play either T position effectively, do you want to replicate that pick in the top 5?  If we deem Little good at RT, do we want to take Neal in the top 5 if he is a RT and not a LT?  If Little CAN play LT effectively, do we take Neal and shift him to RT, even if he's better at LT?  What if the team decided to retain Cam Robinson another year because they still aren't sure about Little?!?  As for Hamilton, I've gotten so sick of Jenkins' penalties I am almost entertaining the idea of being okay with Hamilton higher than I might otherwise want to draft a S-though I'd prefer to trade back a few spots to take him if it came to that.

Haha, methinks you refer to me on the edge rusher notion. My comment was mostly tongue-in-cheek, all good though. I certainly agree with you that IF we pick #3 we don't trade up one for Hutch or Thibs but if one of them IS there when we pick then pounce on him. But if they are both gone then trading back becomes, IMO, our best move. Why? Because Somebody is going to be desperate for a QB, maybe several somebodies, Pittsburgh comes to mind. Atlanta too. Our best chance of building a winner is through the draft. As with you and OLM I agree that after these two Edge Rushers the drop off  is noticeable for the rest of the draft. At least at this point anyway. Moving back a few spots, maybe as many as 10 could garner us some additional high picks for 22 and 23. Lord knows we need them. 

The biggest need on the Oline is not Taylor. He is the second. Biggest is replacing Warhop. I think whoever is the line coach or Urbz himself should tell Little learn to pay Rt. Period. Tag Cam for one more year and get the LT in 23. Meanwhile get Guards and a Center in the mid rounds.  The entire interior of the line is up for replacement imo. Norwell and Cann are probably either gone or should be. I really like Linder but he is hurt too often and we need to draft his eventual replacement this coming draft.

WR1 should be our first priority. This needs to get fixed either in FA or the draft. Personally, I think we should go after a premier WR1 in FA AND draft one.  

ILB is another big need. While I like Myles Jack a lot, he is out of position at ILB. His best yeat was as a SAM opposite Telvin but that was in a 4-3 defense in 2017. Either move him to OLB opposite Josh Allen or move him via trade. Wilson is decent in the run game but we need better pass coverage from both ILB positions. The secondary seems to be performing better with zone coverage of late. Campbell had his best game Sunday by far and it seems it had a lot to do with playing zone. He finally looked like a second round DB. Maybe not that high in the second round but second round nonetheless.

So for my money we take Thibs or Hutch if one is there or we trade back and get WR1 or perhaps Ojabo (agian an Edge guy I know). Then in the second we flip that script.  That leaves a couple 3s and enough 6s to get to couple of 4s and we address Interior O-Line and ILB and more receivers or another TE. More DBs are always needed too.

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