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The big Overtime Rules thread
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(01-26-2022, 12:43 PM)mikesez Wrote: I said above that getting the ball first in overtime only increases your win percentage by 6%. Only 7 of those ten won on the first possession. So it's not nearly the jump you're saying it is. This article cites 54% win rate for flip winners since regular season OT shrunk to 10 mins, but I haven't found a stat on how many of those wins were on the first possession. The same article also states that kicking teams have around 39% win rate since the OT was shortened in the regular season. So the difference from regular season to postseason is roughly 9% (54 to 63.63%), if we are crazy enough to assume that every regular season OT win was on the first possession. 36% of all postseason games have at least two possessions. That's practically identical to the regular season win rate for a coin toss loser; postseason OT coin toss is no less advantageous than in regular seasons. Let's also not forget that the visitor is the one who calls the toss. They are given the 50-50 shot to decide their own fate. |
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