(01-26-2022, 05:23 PM)Mikey Wrote:

(01-26-2022, 12:43 PM)mikesez Wrote: I said above that getting the ball first in overtime only increases your win percentage by 6%.
That's true if you include both regular season and playoff games.
But if you only look at the postseason, the team that gets the ball first has won 10 out of 11 times.
That is absolutely ridiculous.
To have your chances of winning go from 10% to 90% based on one coin flip.
I still think eliminating the coin flip is a good solution. We could say that the team that received the second half kickoff has to kick to start overtime, or we could say that the team that scored last has to kick to start overtime. That way there wouldn't be these wild swings and who is most likely to win coming from a coin toss.

Only 7 of those ten won on the first possession. So it's not nearly the jump you're saying it is.

This article cites 54% win rate for flip winners since regular season OT shrunk to 10 mins, but I haven't found a stat on how many of those wins were on the first possession. The same article also states that kicking teams have around 39% win rate since the OT was shortened in the regular season. 

So the difference from regular season to postseason is roughly 9% (54 to 63.63%), if we are crazy enough to assume that every regular season OT win was on the first possession.
36% of all postseason games have at least two possessions. That's practically identical to the regular season win rate for a coin toss loser; postseason OT coin toss is no less advantageous than in regular seasons. 

Let's also not forget that the visitor is the one who calls the toss. They are given the 50-50 shot to decide their own fate.

Fans might be more upset about one team not getting the ball, but logically we should be equally upset if the coin toss is influencing the outcome, regardless of how many times the ball changes hands.  Even if you only count games decided by a TD on the first drive, I think letting a coin flip increase your chances of winning from 37% to 63% is NUTS! This is an athletic competition.  Deciding who goes first by tug of war or arm wrestling would make more sense than a coin flip!

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