(01-26-2022, 07:50 PM)mikesez Wrote:

(01-26-2022, 05:23 PM)Mikey Wrote: Only 7 of those ten won on the first possession. So it's not nearly the jump you're saying it is.

This article cites 54% win rate for flip winners since regular season OT shrunk to 10 mins, but I haven't found a stat on how many of those wins were on the first possession. The same article also states that kicking teams have around 39% win rate since the OT was shortened in the regular season. 

So the difference from regular season to postseason is roughly 9% (54 to 63.63%), if we are crazy enough to assume that every regular season OT win was on the first possession.
36% of all postseason games have at least two possessions. That's practically identical to the regular season win rate for a coin toss loser; postseason OT coin toss is no less advantageous than in regular seasons. 

Let's also not forget that the visitor is the one who calls the toss. They are given the 50-50 shot to decide their own fate.

Fans might be more upset about one team not getting the ball, but logically we should be equally upset if the coin toss is influencing the outcome, regardless of how many times the ball changes hands.  Even if you only count games decided by a TD on the first drive, I think letting a coin flip increase your chances of winning from 37% to 63% is NUTS! This is an athletic competition.  Deciding who goes first by tug of war or arm wrestling would make more sense than a coin flip!

Where are you getting 37% chance of winning from??

The initial odds are 50%. Heads, or tails. The visitor gets the first chance to determine their advantage, if any. If they win that random event, they get to pick one of three choices that they believe is most advantageous for victory. If they do not, the advantage goes to the team that didn't even get a chance to make the call on the random event.

That's about as fair as you're going to make it without having some weird lottery drawing that chooses which team gets to make the choice.

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(01-26-2022, 08:29 PM)mikesez Wrote: I just had another idea.  Change nothing about overtime, except replace the OT coin toss with a kicking contest.  The two kickers line up on the same goal line.  Whoever kicks the ball to a farther yard marker, gets the ball first.  Out of bounds kicks count as 0 yards.

coaches have to do the kick, though.
if we're tinkering with the system, let's go full chaos.

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