(02-02-2022, 11:44 AM)Mikey Wrote:

(02-01-2022, 05:53 PM)mikesez Wrote: Considering that each half is 30 minutes long, the difference between having 4 possessions or 5 possessions in the first half is not significant, especially when there's an even chance that such an advantage gets cancelled out in the second half.
But OT is not that long.  A team typically gets 0, 1, or 2 possessions.  The differences at each threshold are significant.

Some fun facts about the KC-CIN playoff:

Cincy won the toss, and received.
Both teams had an even number of possessions in the first half (4-4) and KC ended the half with possession.
KC received the 2nd half kick and had as many possessions in Q3 (4) as they did in the entire first half.
At the end of regulation, KC had more possessions (11) than Cincy (10) in spite of losing the opening toss. Again, KC ended the half with possession.
In OT, we all know both teams had one possession each.

OT is 15 minutes, just like a regular quarter.
the possession breakdown by quarter? Glad you asked. CIN 2, 2, 3, 2, 1 KC 2, 2, 4, 2, 1 One of Cincy's drives was a one-and-done INT on first down.
So they were at a disadvantage by not gaining an extra possession in the first half when they received, and also when they lost the OT toss to give KC initial possession.

As KC proved in both regulation and OT, a possession guarantees nothing.
Winning the toss gives you only one advantage - the option to choose your fate. You still have to produce to benefit from the advantage. That's the beauty of football. Sometimes it works, sometimes it don't.

In regulation, either the number of possessions will be equal, or one team will have one more than the other.  It could be either team, regardless of the opening coin toss. The extra possession in this case equated to 10% more chances to score, which is not significant.

In overtime, again, the two teams will either have the same number of possessions, or one team will have one more, but, the extra possession always goes to the team that won the coin toss.  If the possessions break 2 to 1, the team winning the coin toss got 100% more chances to score.  If the possessions break 1 to 0, the advantage in terms of chances becomes very hard to compute.  About 1% of all possessions end in a safety or defensive touchdown, so you can say that the advantage is 99 vs 1 or 9900% more chances.

Again, I am fine with accepting the huge disparity so that the game can end quickly on an exciting play.  I am not fine with giving that huge advantage away based on a random, non-athletic event.

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