(02-12-2022, 03:17 PM)ATLjag Wrote: Would I trade a 3rd round pick (or 2) for Amari Cooper, a 27 year old proven successful and experienced WR (5 of 7 seasons over 1000 yards receiving) with good speed, routes, and hands, and under contract for another 3 years at $20m per season?  $20m per year ranked him in 2021 as the 4th highest paid WR in the league, but quite a bit below Hopkin's $27m as the 1st.  My first thought is "yes", as Trevor is gaining a first round caliber weapon (for a 3rd or 2), you get to take over the contract (no upfront dollars for deadcap due to injury, release or trade), and the cap space is available.  However, the analytical side of me wants to better understand the value or odds of the 3rd round pick. 

An NFL draft study looked at success measured simply as being a starter for at least half of your playing career, a simple measure.  According to the 10 year study, for the WR position, taking one in the 1st round has a 58% success rate, 49% in the 2nd round, 25% in the 3rd, 13% in the 4th, 16% in the 5th, 9% in the 6th, and 5% in the 7th.  Although I personally tend to value 3rd round picks more highly than 25% (as I am eternally a "glass half full guy"), the study leads me to believe trading 1 or 2 3rd rounders for Cooper is favorable, using the odds as a measure.     

Another thought is would I trade 1 or 2 of the Jags historical 3rd round picks for Cooper?  For the Jags specifically, 3rd round selections over the past 10 drafts have been: Andre Cisco, Davon Hamilton, Josh Oliver, Quincy Williams, Ronnie Harrison, Dawuane Smoot, Yannick Ngakoue, AJ Cann, Branson Linder, Dwayne Gratz, and Bryan Anger.  Just about any combination of 2 of these guys, I would make the trade for Cooper. 

So, yes, I would trade either 1 or 2 picks for Cooper.  The $20m per year salary is a little rich for his level of field impact (I think $16-17m is closer to value), but the premium is worth it to upgrade this pathetic offense and help Trevor.