(02-14-2022, 03:56 PM)NewJagsCity Wrote:

(02-14-2022, 01:51 PM)Bullseye Wrote: They have no first round pick.  Either they would have to absolutely fleece some other team, mortgage the future, or trade away current valuable players on their roster.

Yep, checked that, i was thinking of them bundling lower rounders. Not with us.

Even if it's not with us, the dynamic would be similar.

Suppose they wanted to move up to 10 to jump ahead of Washington.

The #10 overall pick has a point value of 1300.

The Colts first pick in this draft-a 2nd round pick (#47 overall) is worth 430 points per the chart.

The Colts would have to make up 870 points, the equivalent of a first round pick-between 19th and 20th overall.

If they gave a future first round pick-like next year's-the common thought is that a pick decreases a round in present value each year removed, meaning next year's 1st round pick is thought to be worth a 2nd rounder this year.  Let's assume for argument's sake, it would be worth the 47th spot.  That's still a difference of 440 points-the equivalent of a 2nd round pick in current value.

To make up that difference, they would have to throw in every other pick in this year's draft, and they'd still only come up with 288.2 points leaving a balance of 152 points, the equivalent of a mid to late 3rd round pick.

If they wanted to move ahead of Pittsburgh-another team believed to need a QB- they'd likely have to come up with 900 points (assuming a trade with New Orleans at 18, since Philly has Indy's first round pick at 19 already).  If they gave this year's 2nd round pick, again worth 430 points, they'd have to come up with another 460 points to get there-the equivalent of a 2nd round pick.  They could offer next year's first round pick in addition.

In either scenario, when you factor in what they gave to Philly for Wentz, they likely will have minimally given up:

2 first round picks (2022, 2023)
1 2nd round pick (2022)
1 3rd round pick (2022)

Again, this represents the best case scenario (trading with New Orleans at 18).  If they traded up to 10, you could easily add a 1st round pick to that and still need to add more to it.

To minimize the draft capital expended, they could add existing players to the mix.  But who on their roster has trade value that would entice the Jets or Saints to move down that far?  Quentin Nelson?  Darius Leonard?

This is even assuming the Jets or Saints would be willing to trade back that far.

Suppose their QB of choice somehow manages to slip all the way down to 31st-Cincinnati's pick (600 points).  That's a difference of 170 points-a 3rd round pick.

Only then are we talking about affordability in terms of draft capital.

But even with that, assuming Cincy was willing to trade back from 31 (a dubious proposition considering they could easily take a Zion Johnson there and upgrade the OL that cost them the Super Bowl).  If they give up their 2nd and 3rd this year for Howell or whomever, how do they address their shortcomings along the OL?  Fisher wasn't the same post injury, and on top of that he's a free agent.  How do they add speed at WR or another TE?  Their lack of quality skill players outside was exposed against us.  Even if they got Howell at 31, the cupboard would be bare, barring a considerable free agency expenditure on their part.

How would such an expenditure impact their ability to keep guys like Nelson and Leonard?

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