(02-23-2022, 07:48 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:

(02-22-2022, 10:57 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: He warrants consideration, but I wouldn't make him my pick.  I start with BAP.  People are entitled to their opinion, but there seems to be a consensus among most that Neal is not BAP at #1.  I saw a 2022 NFL prospect tracker with 8 different sites.  Not one of them had Neal as the BAP.  Not one.  Only two had him second.  Hutch, on the other hand, was #1 in five of those sites.  While Neal is often being mocked to Jacksonville, many of them appear to be doing it largely on perceived need and sometimes ignorance.  I heard one mock drafter on the radio (who projected Neal to the Jaguars) being asked "Why not just franchise Cam Robinson?" and he was a complete deer in the headlights and just stuttered trying to find words to say.  It was obvious he hadn't even considered it.  I doubt he considered the Walker Little factor either.  Many of these professional mock drafters study the draft prospects in detail, but they often don't know the situation in all 32 teams and that's often multiplied by 10 with the Jaguars.  

In regards to needs, your stat about 6 out of our last 9 first round picks being defense sounds nice, but isn't a good argument to justify offense.  3 of those defensive draft picks are no longer on the team and a 4th isn't under contract next year and even if he was hypothetically re-signed, his name is Taven Bryan.  Of the two who are actually under contract for next year, one of them is named K'Lavon Chaisson.  Only 1 of those players is still with team and expected to be a starter for the Jaguars next year.  A single former first rounder being a good defensive player is not great a reason to blindly ignore the entire defensive side of the game.  Besides, when looking at need, I personally don't look at it as "offense" versus "defense", but position versus position.  Just because your defense is better than your offense, it doesn't mean that a defensive position couldn't be your biggest need or vice versa.  While I support taking the edge rusher at #1 this year, it doesn't mean that I'm ignoring offense this off-season.  If I had my way, it would be quite the opposite.  We have the top draft picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round and another early 3rd rounder.  I would likely use at least 3 out of those 4 picks and possibly all 4 on offense.  We also have a ton of money in free agency and would highly target offensive positions with that money.  The top pick would be a nice bone to defense, but the off-season would otherwise be a feast to the offense.

I've also seen this line about 3 offensive line starters being free agents, but I consider it to be misleading.  Bartch started the majority of the season and clearly outplayed Cann.  I consider Bartch to be last year's starting guard and would be this year's starting guard assuming the same team returned.  That leaves two starters as free agents.  One of them is Cam Robinson.  If we want him back, we got him back because of the franchise tag.  That leaves 1 player.  Norwell is the only starting offensive lineman who could leave without us choosing to let him go.  However, he's a guard.  I'm not using the #1 overall pick on a guard.  As such, he's irrelevant to the #1 overall pick discussion.

I also think versatility is extremely over-rated when talking about the #1 overall pick.  Yes, for later picks, and particularly depth picks, it's nice to have players who can play multiple positions to fill in as needed.  However, with the #1 overall pick, I'm taking him to play ONE position.  You mention Coleman and Boselli.  The versatility was with Coleman.  Did Boselli have previous experience at right tackle and guard?  I really don't know and I really don't care.  We took Boselli to play left tackle and I wouldn't want Boselli to play anything but left tackle.  If we draft an offensive lineman #1 overall, I want him at left tackle.  

This brings me to one of my big issues.  With this pick, we are doing one of two things.  One possibility is that we are drafting Neal to be right tackle.  You don't take right tackles at #1 overall.  The positional value is not there.  Let's find some other way to address it.  The other possibility is that we are putting Neal at left tackle which means we are giving up on Walker Little as a left tackle.  That feels extremely premature.  He was a rookie last year.  He was a highly touted draft pick that only dropped to the early second round because of an injury which appears to be healed.  Although it was a limited opportunity, when given a chance to play, he looked good.  I'm not guaranteeing he's the long term answer, but I reject someone who is guaranteeing he's not.  Why not wait a year and see how it plays out?  With so many needs on a 3-14 team, why are we using the very valuable #1 overall pick on a player that isn't BAP and might turn out to not even be a need?

Let's also not under-estimate the value of a good pass rush.  Put pressure on the opposing quarterback and their offense will fall apart.  I've seen it too often.  i also see what happens when you don't put pressure on the quarterback.  Good teams with good quarterbacks will walk all over you.  If our ultimate goal is to be the best, we need a dominant pass rush.  The AFC is completely loaded with great young quarterbacks.  We need to counter that with a great young pass rush.  Josh Allen isn't enough.  You need two edge rushers.  The benefits will filter through the team.  Get a good pass rush and our entire secondary will look better.  By ending these ridiculously long drives, our defense will be more rested and our run defense will be better.  Get some 3 and outs and put THEIR tired defense back on the field and our offense will look better.  Pass rush is a huge part of the game and has become more and more important with the game being centered around passing.  Last year, we drafted the most important position on offense.  This year, let's draft the most important position on defense.  Oh yeah, and he's BAP too.

Two great posts there ^  Really well thought out and well written.  

My thinking on this issue continues to evolve.  But right now, I am strongly leaning towards retaining Robinson and drafting one of the two edge rushers.  It seems like letting go of Cam and drafting Neal is just churning our roster and not making any great improvement.  We've got plenty of cap space, so tagging Cam or signing him to a contract is not going to kill us.  He's a decent left tackle, but who do we have opposite Josh Allen?  Really not much.  Of course, all this has been said before.  

There's a million ways to skin a cat, so the above plan is of course not the only decent plan.  But it seems like the simplest, safest thing to do.  And it allows us to use the #1 overall pick on a player who will give us the greatest roster upgrade.  

Maybe I'm just gun-shy from a decade of thinking we can let a guy walk because he's easily replaced, and then acquiring a replacement who is worse than the guy we let walk.  We have Trevor Lawrence on his rookie contract for 4 more years.  If we start the rebuilding process by tearing things down first, we add years to the rebuilding process.  We know what we have in Cam Robinson.  Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are there for the taking.  Let's not make a hole in the roster that forces us into picking by position instead of by player.

So what I am saying is, let's keep Cam Robinson.

You, me, and TheDuke.  The AOL message boards live on!  Too bad HaCJax passed on.  Do you know if any other former AOL posters are here?  All we need is a team good enough to where we can run some smack and to smack around some Steelers fans, and we'll be all set.    

As to your closing paragraph, based on your reasoning, would I be correct in assuming you want to retain DJ Chark?

Still on your closing paragraph, I would draw a distinction between most of those incidents of getting rid of players and Robinson.  Just about every player we've regretted getting rid of over the years were at some point pro bowl or better caliber players.  Jalen Ramsey has been All Pro.  Yannick Ngakoue was a Pro Bowler and double digit sack guy.  Calais Campbell was once Defensive player of the year for us.  While we didn't specifically jettison Telvin Smith, we were nonetheless sickened when he retired prematurely because he made a Pro Bwol and won a few defensive player of the week awards.  Allen Robinson made the Pro Bowl for us in 2015,,,,and he was our first pro bowler at the position since Jimmy Smith.  Cam Robinson doesn't have those accolades to his credit.  While I don't think he has been as bad as many has made him out to be, nobody would mistake him for a dominant, pro bowl caliber LT.  Besides, we're in the optimal position to replace him through the draft.  In fact, if Walker Little is who we all hope he is, we already HAVE Cam's replacement on the roster.

It certainly wouldn't be the end of the world if we kept Cam Robinson and took a player at another position at #1, but the dynamic you lament is not present with the Cam Robinson situation.

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