(04-06-2022, 02:06 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:

(04-04-2022, 11:10 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: I'll admit that I haven't studied draft prospects at kicker.  If it is a historically bad draft for kickers that might change my mind.  However, I will say that the fact that we have 6 draft picks in the 6th and 7th rounds this year factors heavily into my position.  I don't see 6 players drafted that late making our 53 man roster and we need more competition at kicker.  Even if a player is projected to be a UDFA, that doesn't guarantee that the Jaguars get him.  The kicker may choose to sign with a different team.  If we think one kicker is better than the rest, it still would likely make sense to use a late round pick in order to lock up our first choice at kicker.  If there are hypothetically multiple kickers who we consider to be virtually equal prospects, then yeah, it makes sense to skip it.

I do. Especially at WR. As it stands now, our receiving unit is no better than it was last season.

I don't see a sixth or seventh round wide receiver making this roster.  NFL teams typically keep six wide receivers.  There is no way the Jaguars are cutting Christian Kirk or Zay Jones after giving them $37 million and $14 million in guaranteed money.  Agnew makes the team largely for special teams.  I'm assuming the Jaguars draft a wide receiver in the first five rounds (probably in rounds two or three).  Marvin Jones Jr. had 832 yards and 4 touchdowns last year and I think he will be more productive if some other receiver on the team can serve as the #1 instead of him.  That's five wide receivers.

It leaves Shenault.  I don't cut Shenault for a sixth rounder.  I know you love to say "he can't catch", but he only had 3 drops in 2020.  If he can do it in 2020, he can do it in 2022.  He has 1,219 receiving yards through two seasons.  You think a sixth rounder is likely to beat that?  History says no.  Excluding Shenault, the Jaguars have drafted 31 wide receivers in their history.  Only 3 out of 31 had more than Shenault's 1,219 yards at this point in their career and two of those players only barely beat it.  Allen Robinson (a second rounder) is the only drafted receiver out of 31 to have had more than 1,300 yards through his first two years.  If we're looking specifically at late round picks, it is even worse.  The Jaguars have had 17 wide receivers drafted in the 5th round or later.  15 out of the 17 finished their career with fewer than 500 receiving yards.  I know there are occasional surprises, but you have to be realistic in your expectations at that point in the draft.  I don't like our odds with a late round pick.  I prefer to give a former second rounder an opportunity to see if he can develop.

p.s. Keep in mind that I didn't even mention Treadwell.  I don't think he makes the 53 man roster, but that late round draft pick would have to beat him out as well.

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