(04-26-2022, 10:22 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:

(04-26-2022, 07:31 AM)Bullseye Wrote: Well, FWIW, Shad Khan reportedly supports drafting Hutchinson #1 overall.

As for Walker, if you truly compare him  favorably to Ziggy Ansah, then it doesn't make much sense to dump the team for getting an Ansah.  You say his best fit is as a 4-3 DE.  I agree with that.  It doesn't mean, however, that he can't function well within a 3-4, especially as an edge rusher.  If he can run a 4.51 40 at that weight, what could he do 5-10 lbs lighter?  He'd have the length to do well as a pass rusher, and his pure power would make him virtually unblockable by anyone other than a T.  But if you saw him as purely a 3-4 DE, it doesn't mean he couldn't contribute to the pass rush.  Bruce Smith, Neil Smith, Justin Smith and JJ Watt all managed to do that.  As a 3-4 DE, I would be happy if he became Justin Smith v. 2.0.  My problem with the selection is because of the way he seemed to be utilized at Georgia, he never developed many pass rush moves (Top Billin' has a video breakdown of him that is instructive on how he was utilized), and it would take the Jaguars coaches to develop him.  Based on this team's history, we haven't done a good job developing players at all.  This current coaching staff hasn't been here long enough to establish a track record for developing players.  My thing is even assuming they can develop him, how long will it take him to be a serious pass rushing threat?  That said, we don't know how the coaches will utilize him just yet, assuming he would be the pick.  Maybe if they freed him up to be primarily an edge pass rusher, maybe they can develop the moves in him to be productive.

As for the team's draft history/inability to retain the few good players we've drafted...ugh!  I have dedicated for more thought and board posts to those subjects than I care to.

FTR, I never thought you to be suicidal...just hilariously prone to hyperbole and exaggeration.  Health?  Believe me, I know where you are coming from health wise.  You and I are roughly the same age.  My body's check engine light came on a few years back, and it has negatively impacted my life, and it has negatively impacted my posting quality.  By all means, take care of yourself and your health.  I'm just fearful this team is on the cusp of a  major turnaround, and the thought of jumping ship now and missing out on it would sicken me to no end.

It does when you figure that Ziggy Ansah went to a perfect system that fit his skill set and still flamed out very quickly. He basically hasn't done anything for the last 3 seasons and many believe his career is likely over after 8 years. Ansah had more sacks his last year at BYU that Walker had his entire career at Georgia, so people knew he had the ability to get to the QB. With Walker, there is a huge question mark in that regard. Walker would not be coming into a scheme that fits his skill set, so there would likely be a huge learning curve as he tries to learn a whole new position at OLB. It would almost be like selecting a Ziggy Ansah clone, only the clone would come into the league with basically one hand tied behind his back. The last time we drafted a player in the first round that we intended to move to a new position was Matt Jones. That didn't turn out so well. 

The problem with projecting his Combine numbers into an NFL skill set is that he has obviously had this athletic ability all along, so why the lack of production? Using players like Bruce Smith, Neil Smith, Justin Smith and J.J. Watt as examples are very unfair. Bruce Smith had 46 career sacks at Virginia Tech, Neil Smith was an All-American pass rusher at Nebraska, Justin Smith set Missouri's sack record his first year as a starter and broke it the following season and J.J. Watt was an absolute "Beast" coming into the draft. He was probably the most feared pass rusher in the entire NCAA and commanded constant double teams, because of his size and non-stop motor. None of these guys had questions about their ability to pass rush coming into the draft, yet that is the main knock on Walker. 

If we kept Walker at 3-4 DE, what do we do with the other players on the roster? We are absolutely loaded at DE and NT in a 3-4 set. Those are without a doubt, our strongest positions right now. 3-4 DE's are mainly used for run defense, unless you find a very special pass rusher like an Aaron Donald. I really don't think you would find anyone in the world who would believe Walker compares to Donald. Again, Donald was an elite college sack artist and had almost 30 for his college career. Walker by all means is a "project" and you just don't draft "projects" in the first round, especially #1 overall when you've been picking in the top ten, 14 out of 15 straight years.  


In any case, I just hope that this is all a smokescreen and we truly are gonna take a "safe" player and after over a decade, we can finally turn this ship around. Right now, I choose to believe we will do the smart thing. I hope this team doesn't let us down, again.

1.  We don't know exactly what Caldwell will do with the scheme though.  We know he will run a 3-4 base, but that's about it.  Most of the time we'll be in a base nickel, by Pederson's estimation.  We don't know how creative or flexible Caldwell will be in utilizing his players.  He may well utilize Walker in a way that better utilizes his skill set than Georgia did and get the most out of his pass rushing ability. 

2.  As for what to do with the other players...what other players do we have along the front 3...specifically DE...that;s indispensable?  I was saying last year when we signed all of these guys than none of them were dominators.  They weren't.  While there was improvement from 20-21, there were times we got hammered in the running game (SF, 1st quarter vs. Indy in game one) and could get no pressure in the passing game.  If we added Walker strictly as a 3-4 DE, he could still improve the front generally and pass rush specifically.  If he has the tools to be a dominant edge rusher...even better.  Furthermore, though I prefer to stack up on offense, there is nothing at this point that precludes the team from stacking up on defense the first two rounds.  What would the defense look like with Walker and say Mafe after the first two rounds?  I'd say if the goal was to improve the pass rush, that combination would accomplish that goal too. In fairness, I was not comparing Walker yo any of the Smiths I listed above.  I only named them to illustrte it's possible to get good pass rush from a 3-4 DE.  That said, J.J. Watt wasn't picked until 11th or 12th, and only produced 5 sacks as a rookie.  It took some time and development for him to be J.J. Watt.  I have my doubts abouut the player and the coaching, but it's possible he could develop into a good edge rusher too.

3,  This time last year, we were in the ideal situation in terms of draft position and the talent pool available.  We had a huge need at the most important position, and the top of the draft had a guy who most observers seemed to think was the best QB prospect to come out in years.  Below him were four other QBs carrying first round grades...two of which were drafted immediately after Trevor Lawrence, one more at pick 11 or so, and then the last at 15.  This year, it's not so good.  This year, the draft class seems completely devoid of the clear cut stud at the top of the draft class.  It makes it far less likely to be able to trade back and get anything remotely resembling a lucrative draft haul in return.  Bor does there appear to be a Julius Peppers type of player.  We have a bunch of flawed candidates at the top of this draft class from which to choose.  While I don't think it's as bad as the 2013 draft class, I do think like 2013 (and 1991 (Russell Maryland), too) it may be lackluster at the very top, especially in comparison to last year.  No matter who we pick, there is some reason to think we might be at least mildly disappointed with the results, especially in the rookie season.  While not the move I would make, I could see a team in this instance gambling on potential to swing for the fences.  Still don't think it's worth dumping your team over it.  As far as stress goes..the only thing I can advise is to not expect much from the team.  Since 2000, botching the draft has been as traditional to the team as teal jerseys.  Don't expect much...and if they exceed your expectations...great.  If not...your disappointment will be mitigated to some degree.

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