(04-28-2022, 02:40 PM)rpr52121 Wrote:

(04-28-2022, 02:36 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: Vegas doesn't predict.  They just balance out the odds so they don't lose money.  The bettors are making the prediction.

That doesn't make sense to me. Based on that they would always be reacting, yet the business for bookies is always profitable. They have to be predicting things to some extent.

Why do you think the bookie business is always profitable?  They are always changing the odds to split the bets, so they cannot lose.  Too much money comes in on one side, so they change the odds to attract money to the other side.  They're not predicting the future.   They're just ensuring they get their cut and whichever side wins, they don't take a bath, because they have split the bets.  Why do you think the odds move when big money comes in on one side?  They have to restore the balance.  

Really if you want to say they are predicting something, what they are predicting is how people are going to bet.  They're not trying to predict what's actually going to happen, other than that.

That's why it's totally bogus to say the oddsmakers in Vegas think Walker will be our pick.  The bettors are saying Walker will be our pick.  Not the oddsmakers.

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