(05-03-2022, 12:44 PM)rfc17 Wrote:

(05-03-2022, 07:25 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: 1,891 snaps at DE for Hutchinson in his time at Michigan. 17.5 sacks, 27.5 TFL in 4 seasons. 

"Walker played 200 snaps as a backup in 2020, per Pro Football Focus. He had 37 of his career 65 college tackles last season. As a junior, he played 381 snaps at defensive end, 105 at defensive tackle, 98 at linebacker, 11 at nose guard and one as a cornerback, according to the NFL Network."

Can't find his snap count as a freshman for whatever reason, but based on the stats above it's pretty safe to assume he's played close to half as much football as Aidan Hutchinson, And on top of that he was not rushing the passer 100% of the time like Aidan was.

Yet, 17.5 sacks in nearly 2,000 snaps is "production" whilst 9.5 in what I would assume to be somewhere in the range of 500-700 snaps of rushing the passer, presumably less than that even looking at how Georgia played defense is considered "not producing"

It took Aidan Hutchinson 22 games to get 3.5 sacks as a pure pass rushing DE. It took Travon 29 games to get 9.5, whilst being a backup in each of his first two seasons and only just this year being a starter whilst also not rushing the passer 100% of the time. 

Hutchinson had one good year stats wise, How is this a sure fire pick? I think we made the correct choice here.

Good find!  One counter I could make to that was the stat breakdown of what % of their sacks were unblocked vs blocked.  Somewhere on these boards a month or so ago, someone posted a link to an image showing which rushers "earned" the biggest % of their sacks compared to those who were "gifted" their sacks because of being unblocked or just a good defensive play design.  Hutch and Thibs "earned" the majority of their sacks whereas as Walker was almost as high as 50% of his sacks were either being unblocked or just schemed.  Which if you think about it makes sense.  His role in that defense wasn't to rush the passer.  And when he did, they would often have him stunt around and there are highlights where you can see the offensive lineman getting confused and letting him rush clean.  He just didnt have that many sacks where he was asked to rush the passer and beat his guy straight up because he wasn't asked to do it.  If our plan is to turn him into a double digit sack guy in the NFL, it is based purely on potential and nothing with the numbers.

Obviously, have others have said 100 times on here, none of these guys were a slam dunk 1st overall.  And probably does them a disservice to hold them to that expectation even though that'll be what happens.  As I've thought about it more, I could see them both have an equally low floor and high ceiling.  The scheme fit and how much development they receive may ultimately determine who has the better career.  Hopefully for our sake we get the most out of Walker.  I'm assuming their plan is for him to be a double digit sack guy but if not, I do wonder what their vision looks like.